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Ready or not 2007, here we are

By Patrick Osio, Jr./HispanicVista.com

  January 8, 2007

 

  

 

Ready or not 2007, here we are

By Patrick Osio, Jr.

 

Much of what will happen in Baja California in 2007 depends on some past and present events. It becomes necessary to review and look ahead at what took place and continues in Mexico City as well as some surprises from Washington D.C. that directly impacts Baja California and directly or indirectly San Diego first, California follows.

 

Mexico has a new President Felipe Calderon Hinojosa from the same party as former president Fox, PAN. The election severely tested the infant democracy due to the closeness of the final tally. The result was not only contested in the courts, but also on the streets by the eventual loser, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), from the leftist party PRD.

 

The issue is ongoing as AMLO did not accept the electoral court’s ruling, declaring himself the rightful president of Mexico, calling Calderon a usurper to the presidency, and created a “shadow” government from which he will govern.

 

Political uncertainty or unrest most often disrupts economic progress and discourages foreign investment much needed by Mexico with Baja California a major recipient of investment dollars. How serious AMLO’s behavior will affect Mexico will much depend on how strong the new President is. So far, Calderon is off to a good start, he hit the road running and was quick to demonstrate his willingness to bring the power of his office to bear on critical problems. He deployed 10,000 troops to the state of Michoacan to seize drug cartels operating there with total impunity, and is now doing the same in Baja California with other states to follow.

 

To curtail the influence of AMLO, he has ordered special attention and aid be provided to the 100 neediest communities in the nation, and has enforced an austerity program on himself and on his cabinet by lowering his and their salaries. So far Calderon’s actions are meeting with positive acclaims providing encouragement, which in turn dispels reservations for the country’s future.

 

However, the bad news came in the annual raising of minimum wages that was a paltry 3.5 percent that still leaves people in poverty in that same condition. This was followed allowing the price of corn to take a considerable rise in price. Corn is a basic staple for most Mexicans, but particularly the poor and very poor. From corn the tortilla is made, the basic food in Mexico. The increase in corn dramatically raised the price of tortillas to around 80 cents a kilo. It may not sound like much to US consumers, but it’s quite a bit to the Mexican poor.

 

This event is not settling well with the Mexicans that supported AMLO but have recently abandoned his camp since he became more and more radical for most. Such actions sanctioned by the Calderon administration will come back to haunt him in the future.

 

Closer to home, 2007 is election year for the governor’s office. The PAN presently holding the office will have several candidates viewing for the nomination. The most prominent announced candidate is former Tijuana mayor, Hector Osuna Jaime, who has also served as Senator. Present Tijuana mayor, Jorge Hank Rhon, has previously said he would seek his party’s, PRI, nomination. Members of the leftist PRD who may seek nomination have not come forth as of yet. If Hank Rhon does declare his candidacy he must vacate the mayors’ office, as in Mexico it is prohibited to seek another office while in office. Plus the Baja California state constitution prohibits an office holder from running for another position while serving in an elected office. Rohn claims the constitution is faulty and that his attorneys have advised that he can seek office provided he resigns as called out in the federal law.

 

A great deal of what takes place in 2007 and years ahead will depend on the ultimate winner for the governor’s office. If it remains in PAN hands with Osuna, a known quality, expectations of greater and planned growth can be expected, and he enjoys a solid relationship with President Calderon.

 

On the other hand, if the PRI wins, be it Hank or someone else, the future would be cloudy as many believe that it would signal a return to the old standard of doing business in Mexico that enriches some at the expense of many. The PRD has not enjoyed much popularity in Baja, and there is nothing indicating any change at this time.

 

Another critical issue for Baja presently mired in political strife on the US side, is the Colorado water allotments. The Colorado River runs through several states crossing the border to meet with the Sea of Cortes. San Diego needs as much water as it can obtain to keep up with demand. Present allotments are not sufficient leading to proposing the American Canal fed by the Colorado be cemented as presently water seeps through the unlined canal finding its way into the water tables that in turn feed into Baja’s Mexicali’s agricultural valley. If the Mexicali agricultural sector loses the water table the fields will dry up or a fight will break out to take Colorado River water pumped to Tijuana, Rosarito and Ensenada, which, if so done,  will have dire effects on those municipalities as even with the present allocation of water, it is not enough to meet future demands.

 

So there exists a power play between the needs of San Diego and Baja on this issue. The eventual results will play a major role on Baja’s future, indeed on the entire binational region not least which is immigration if farming comes to a stop in the Mexicali valley, a major agricultural region in Mexico, we can expect more border crossings of the undocumented kind.

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Patrick Osio, Jr. is Editor of HispanicVista.com (www.hispanicvista.com). Contact at: Posiojr@aol.com

 

(The opinions expressed by Patrick Osio, Jr. are solely his and do not necessarily reflect those of HispanicVista.com, editorial board of advisors or it’s contributing writers.)

Patrick Osio, Jr. has written a short but intensive manual on the Mexican perspective on numerous issues between our two countries. The manual is an in depth primer on the culture and protocol for better understanding Mexicans that in turn allows establishing personal and business relationships, and how to avoid the most common faux pas that can ruin relationships and business deals.

The manual is available through Electronic delivery for $9.95 making it possible to download the manual for save on your hard drive, printing its entirety or particular sections while reaping considerable savings over printed copies.