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Baja California at the threshold of progress or setback?

By Patrick Osio, Jr./HispanicVista.com

  January 25, 2008

 

 

 

Baja California at the threshold of progress or setback?

By Patrick Osio

The year 2008, shapes up to be pivotal for Baja’s economy for years to come. It doesn’t promise to be a very good one, but there is potential for holding the course steady or conversely take a reversal that will undo much of the gains made in recent years. Much depends on US border policies, second and retirement home markets, tourism and industrial output affecting Baja’s maquiladora sector. Another important factor along the Tijuana to Ensenada coastal corridor is one of visitors’ personal security– it will either improve and thus eliminate a tourism barrier or continue drawing headlines undermining tourism.

Last December 13, a conference, Understanding Baja in 2008, was held at the Fox Studios in Rosarito Beach. Hector Bustamante, CEO of Century 21 North Baja Coast (formerly Bustamante Realty Group), the first speaker said to the approximately 150 Baja planned community developers and real estate professionals, “I have a secret to share with you – we are all doing real bad.” The candid assessment greeted with giggles since it’s no secret, speaks of the fall of the US real estate market that is now also affecting much of the coastal Baja sales to Americans as the primary buyers in this region.

But additional forces are working against Baja – unbearable border crossing delays continue to hamper tourism in both directions with no US remedial policy on any burner and in fact with promises of further delays and cancellations of cross border trips in the making with the new cross-border identification requirements the first which goes into effect at the end of January.

Recapping the economic detriments faced by Baja in 2008, we find:

• US real estate market in a serious slump projected to be worse in 2008
• Crimes and police shakedowns of tourists along with Al Capone era gang shootouts endangering innocent bystanders
• Continued border crossing delays and new citizenship identification requirements for US citizens on reentry
• A possible US recession cutting production output that will in turn affect US and Mexican factories

On the positive side that could be positive to Baja are several factors:

• The continuing aging of Americans is not subject to market whims – every day 10,000 Americans enter pre or retirement age. Research studies indicate 55 percent will move from present home either within the US or out of country (Pulte/DelWebb  2004)
• Retirees seek affordable living with quality of life, not available in much of the US.
• Proximity to family, friends and US places Baja high on the list.
• Medical tourism – unlike visitor tourism visiting for rest and relaxation, medical service seekers arrive to obtain affordable medical services including low cost medicines.

Baja can position itself as the “bargain” region for retirement housing along with affordable quality of life and a haven for low cost medical services. And the good news for Baja is that it is doing precisely that.

For people ready to retire on fixed incomes, reducing cost of living is not a luxury, it is a necessity. Through the sale or even reverse mortgage, retirees can purchase a fine home with ocean view at considerable savings over the cost of a US home. Plus the annual savings on property taxes in the thousands of dollars provides additional spendable income. The availability of low cost, but quality health care and savings on medicines provides additional spendable income.  For retirees the border waits becomes a once in a while ordeal as their border crossing is infrequent.

On December 14 last, following the Fox Studio conference, the Tijuana Economic Development Council held a conference on Medical Tourism. The plans to promote such tourism have been ongoing for the better part of the year and are well advanced set to kick off during the first quarter of 2008. Here again, for people who stand to save several hundred if not thousands on medical treatments or medicines, the border waiting crossing becomes bearable due to their visit with a saving money purpose.

So if Baja can successfully promote itself as a “saving money destination” during 2008 it will reap rewards not only in 2008, but for years to come. And this for San Diego it means that Baja residents will continue to cross spending a good portion of those dollars generated in Baja.

_________________

 Patrick Osio, Jr is the editor of HispanicVista.com (http://www.hispanicvista.com).  Contact at: PosioJr@hispanicvista.com

(The opinions expressed by Patrick Osio, Jr. are solely his and do not necessarily reflect those of HispanicVista.com, editorial board of advisors or it’s contributing writers.)

 

Patrick Osio, Jr. has written a short but intensive manual on the Mexican perspective on numerous issues between our two countries. The manual is an in depth primer on the culture and protocol for better understanding Mexicans that in turn allows establishing personal and business relationships, and how to avoid the most common faux pas that can ruin relationships and business deals.

The manual is available through Electronic delivery for $9.95 making it possible to download the manual for save on your hard drive, printing its entirety or particular sections while reaping considerable savings over printed copies.