HispanicVista Columnists

US citizens will need Passport to enter the US.

By Patrick Osio, Jr./HispanicVista.com

May 9, 2005

 

     If the news that US citizens will need passports to re-enter the country after visiting, even for a few hours, border cities like Tijuana, was a surprise, you’re in good company – so was President Bush.  “What’s going on here?” was his reported reaction after reading about it in a newspaper. “I think it’s going to disrupt honest flow of traffic,” he added.

 

Well, it was President Bush’s signature on December 17, 2004, that created the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (IRTPA, also known as the 9/11 Intelligence Bill). The law mandated that the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, “develop and implement a plan to require U.S. citizens and foreign nationals to present a passport or other secure document when entering the United States. This in turn created the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative.

 

The President’s reaction on ‘first’ reading about it is no different than from everyone else – it’s going to be a calamity! This is natural, anytime a new condition is imposed on border crossers, disruption in the form of border crossing delays, at least for a time, are sure to follow, which in turn causes economic losses and employment on both sides of the border.

 

The Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) border crossing data indicates that in the San Ysidro, Otay Mesa and Tecate, California ports-of-entry each day 136,000 (49.6 million annually) passenger vehicles and 355,000 individuals (129.6 million annually car-passenger and pedestrians) cross both ways. Of all the US-Mexico border crossings, these numbers are the greatest.

 

On April 12, SANDAG  (San Diego Association of Governments) released a memorandum with interim summaries of data collected for its ongoing study: Estimating the Economic Impacts of Border Wait Times at the San Diego-Baja California Border Region that provides a glimpse on the binational region’s economic integration and size.

 

The preliminary SANDAG surveys at the border (vehicles and pedestrians waiting to enter the US) indicate that 29.3 percent live in the US, and 70.7 percent live in Mexico. Using the DHS data, these percentages translate into 104,915 living in the US and 250,985 living in Mexico crossing the border each day.

 

To those living in Mexico the question was asked: “In total, how much money (in dollars) do you expect to spend in the United States on this trip?”  The responses varied but the median was $142.01.  Even considering, but not addressed in the SANDAG report, that the 250,985 may be families of four, the median expenditure translates into better than $8.9 million a day ($3.25-billion a year), and possibly higher if the family-of-four figure is lower. Considering that the total take of the Convention Center in 2004 was $1.2-billion, Baja visitors are a great economic resource to San Diego.

 

In the SANDAG survey US residents returning from Baja were asked: “In total, how much money did you spend in Mexico on this trip?”  The responses also varied but the median was $144.32. So the potential spent in Baja by the 104,915 visitors, depending on family size returning, can range from $5 million ($1.5 billion annually) to $7.5 million ($2.7 billion annually). Whatever the amount, it is a significant portion of Baja’s approximately $15 billion annual gross regional product.

 

Indications are that the law mandating passports or other positive identification will have a greater negative impact on Baja than it will on San Diego because Mexican citizens have needed passports to obtain Border Crossing Cards (BCC) to enter the US for decades. The BCC will most assuredly be accepted in lieu of a passport. This holds true for such other places as Nogalez, Ciudad Juarez and all other border cities.

 

Overall travel to Mexico will be the most affected as only about 60 million (about 20 percent) Americans have passports that US citizens will need on reentry this includes visits to Baja.

 

The greatest impact will be the loss of the “day tourist” to Tijuana who while vacationing in San Diego from non-border states and not having a passport will forgo the trip. These Tijuana visitors are the mainstay of Avenida Revolucion along with the under 21 crowd frequenting the discos and bars.

 

Americans associate a passport with foreign travel and since the vast majority doesn’t travel outside of the US or to Mexico or Canada where historically they have not needed a passport, it does not occur to them that they need to apply and spend good money on obtaining one. And they most assuredly don’t associate visiting San Diego and maybe Tijuana for a few hours with needing a passport.

 

High school and college kids that for several generations assume as a right of passage forays into drinking spots in Tijuana are not big spenders, but their volumes add up to a considerable amount of revenues. If over 18, they can on their own obtain a passport, but will they fork out the cost ($97 first time, $67 renewal – passport good for 10 years) and wait the month or so it takes to arrive?

 

More than likely military personnel’s ID card could qualify in lieu of a passport, but if the Navy and Marine regional commands petition DHS to not include them as qualifying alternatives to, at long last, control young servicemen from crossing the border, this business will also become history in Baja in the absence of each having a passport – not likely to happen.

 

The further problem to the day or occasional weekend visits to Tijuana and places south like Rosarito Beach or Ensenada is, will individuals and families be motivated to obtain a passport and going through the expense - mother and father and kids over 16 individual passports at the $97 fee. Granted that amortized over 10 years it’s a very low cost, but the expenditure is up front and can run a family several hundred dollars. This will have a greater impact and act as a travel deterrent to lower income families.

 

 In the San Diego region, in lieu of a passport, other forms of proof of citizenship will be accepted, such as the SENTRI (Secure Electronic Network for Travelers Rapid Inspection) cards, using dedicate commuter lanes, both vehicular and pedestrian, to expedite daily travel across the US border available upon enrollment acceptance at a cost of $120 per person, good for two years. But these are small in numbers compared to the total crossings into Baja thus a passport will be the best alternative for most.

 

The law for land border crossings will take effect on January 1, 2008, but for air and sea ports Phase one of the law, takes effect on December 1, 2005 (this year) – This mandates US citizens, Canadian and Bermuda citizens traveling to the US by air or sea from Caribbean, Central and South American countries must have passports. Phase two takes effect on December 31, 2006, expanding the air and sea travel to the US from anywhere within the Western Hemisphere (includes Canada and Mexico).

 

How will this affect cruise ships to San Diego that also travel to Ensenada is to be determined, but it will, as will travel by Canadians to San Diego that previously have not needed a passport to enter the US.

 

The Department of Homeland Security and Secretary of State will publish in the Federal Register an advance notice of proposed rule making, and open the door for public comments later this year.  This will provide the border regions an opportunity to voice concerns and make recommendations.

 

In the end, it will not be about border crossing delays because border inspectors already stop each car or person and ask for identification, so uniform identification will ease crossings. What remains to be seen is whether US citizens who have never had a passport will obtain one.

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Patrick Osio, Jr is editor of HispanicVista.com (www.hispanicvista.com). Reach him at PosioJr@hispanicvista.com