In recent voting a surprise, if not a shock,
came with the results of the Hamas victory in Palestine. While a small
victory was expected, the general sweep of Hamas came as a shock to the
world. The Hamas, founded as a terrorist organization and dedicated to the
destruction of Israel, has found itself in complete power in Palestine. And
this is making a lot of the world very nervous. On top of this, a
substantial minority in Palestine is rioting for fear that Hamas will
establish a Taliban style regime. But behind this is a factor that in my
opinion has not been fully recognized.
The former ruling party of Palestine, the Fatah, which was founded by
the late Arafat, was a hallmark of corruption and cronyism. And despite
their promises, the state of the economy is still a grinding poverty run
by rampant corruption. In fact, one of the only ways for many people to
get jobs was to be able to work in Israel. (Something like the "safety
valve" of the Mexican northern border.) That avenue for work has now been
eliminated. And it should be pointed out that Israel had been a prime
source of foreign aid to Palestine along with the US, all now in
suspension.
But my point here is that much of this vote was simply a vote for
change. But we should remember the old adage, "Be careful what you vote
for, you might get your wish". Also remember the law of unintended
consequences.
The voting in the Mid east is not the subject here, because we should
be looking at another part of the world, namely Latin America. Here again,
there is a history of grinding poverty, corruption and a lack of workable
legal systems. This has produced a pattern of "leftward" shifts in country
after country. Fortunately, in most cases, this shift has turned out to be
moderated by reality in many of the countries that have elected more
"leftward" governments. We note that Morales, in Bolivia has softened
somewhat his stated views after assumption of office. But time will tell
to see if the conditions that elected these new governments will realize
any real changes in those countries.
More to the point is México, who has started the campaign process for
the upcoming presidential election in July. Three parties are in play for
the office. First is the PRI, the party that ruled México for 71 years as
the "Perfect Dictatorship". The PAN, who promised general reforms in the
government and improvement of the economy, replaced them in 2000. While
the PAN is not totally to blame for the failure to install most of the
needed reforms and improvement the earning power of the lower classes,
their 6-year rule is seen by many as a failure.
The third party in play is the PRD, founded by a split from the PRI
as a more "socialist" party. The promise is to reverse many of the
"neo-liberal" policies started in recent years (more privatization of
government run companies and a more business friendly environment). The
problem for the PAN is that this has not worked out well for the vast
underclass in México. While there is more business, little of the increase
has filtered down to these lower classes. The one facet of the economy
that has increased is the exportation of people to the North (read the US)
to find meaningful work and, in turn, to send money back to their families
in México. The PAN administration called these people "Heroes of México"
for their contribution of the immense remittances sent back to México. But
it should be pointed out that these remittances were not for "México" the
country, but for families.
With the "safety valve" of migration in danger of being greatly
reduced in the US (like building the wall and far stricter enforcement
against "illegals"), it would seem that this element of stability for
México might be in trouble. Just listening to the rhetoric of the "far
right" in the US should give cause for some serious thought about the
viability of this policy in México. While more reasonable reforms on
immigration in the US are on the table, it would seem that what will come
is the more radical solutions that are coming to fore.
And as the hardening of immigration reform takes place in the US, the
political campaign is cranking up in México. Which way will México turn to
in July?
As it stands now, the leading campaign spender is the PRI, followed
by the PAN. The PRD is spending less than a third of the PRI now. But the
polls are just the reverse of the campaign spending. López Obrador, the
PRD candidate leads, with the PAN next and the PRD lowest. Interesting. It
should also be pointed out that López Obrador has been building a less
extreme platform to run on recently.
The important thing to remember here is that unless the government of
a country can address the needs of its people, the people will
increasingly turn to more extreme remedies. But in that process, the
people might just get what they voted for.
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Richard N. Baldwin T., a HispanicVista.com (http://www.hispanicvista.com/)
contributing columnist, lives in Tlalnepantla, Edo de México. E-mail at:
R1041643422@aol.com
By
Richard N. Baldwin T. /HispanicVista.com