Maybe you remember the old song about it being later than you think. Another possible title would have been "Figures Don't Lie, But Liars Figure". What brings this to mind is the Mexican government's proud announcement last month that México's poverty level is dropping. The Technical Commission for Poverty Measurement (under the Secretariat of Social Development known as SEDESOL) proudly stated that those considered poor (earning less than $136.00 USD per month) dropped from 52.5 million to 49 million since the year 2000. So now, we have only 47% of our population in either poverty or extreme poverty. Wow! And the extreme poverty level is down to 17.3 percent (under 20% for the first time since the De la Madrid administration. Ain't we doing great!

     One political commentator here asks "Why did this happen"? Answer: "We haven't the slightest idea".

     Now, for our unemployment rate. México proudly proclaims unemployment rates well under 5%. We publish rates that show México as one of the lowest unemployment rates in the entire world. If so, then why the high poverty rate? Actually, the answer is simple. Anyone over the age of 12 in México that puts in at least one hour of work is classed as employed. And that includes any work that the "worker" receives any amount of money for. That includes the boy at the traffic light who squirts water on your windshield, wipes the window off, and hopes for a peso or two. This includes both the legal, registered business employees and the vast underground economy that pays no benefits or taxes. Since there is no unemployment compensation program here to review, the government survey is conducted by a sampling. In short, without understanding what that figure means, it should be treated as a fraud. Remember, liars figure. That said, our unemployment rate has been rising.

     Here is something else, our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita rate compared to other world countries. In the year of 2001, México was rated as the ninth largest GDP per capita in the world, ahead of Spain. We are now number 14, tied with India. And our poverty rate is dropping?

     One last look at government figures. According to Mexican census and income data, "remittances" (money sent by Mexicans working abroad mainly in the US) totaled over 16 billion dollars. This puts remittances as our second largest source of foreign income, second only to our oil exports. This year, it is expected to total about 20 billion. But wait a minute! Now Rodolfo Tuiran, an official of our Social Development Secretariat says those figures may be "overstated". Using many sources in México and the US, he concludes that the 2004 figure should be about 9.6 billion, not the 16 billion figure published. In reality, no one really knows how much family remittances are coming in except it is certainly a lot of money. With our defunct tax system, we can't separate family remittances from business payments.

     Now, getting back to the poverty rate drop, I would like to suggest an answer as to why. Simple . . .  the drop is due to poor Mexicans abandoning México to go north to work for a decent income. We "export" them so that they can send money home to their families.

     The real question that should be asked is how long this situation can last? The political class here should be looking at how many "democratically elected" governments are falling due to popular uprisings. This is especially true in Latin America. More and more presidents and entire governments are being overthrown by "pots and pans" and rocks on the roads revolutions. It hardly makes headline news anymore.

     The "Washington Consensus" tells us that if a government is democratically elected and practices a strict fiscal policy, everything will be just fine. But what is ignored is that if people are hungry, that "consensus" means nothing. If you and your family cannot receive even the opportunity for the most meager subsistence, your society is in trouble. And it doesn't help that México is right alongside of one of the most prosperous societies in the world. And as Mexicans get more and more informed as to what is going on in the world, the worse their government looks to them. Common sense tells us that this situation cannot continue.

     So, to our political class I say ... Enjoy yourselves. It's later than you think.

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Richard N. Baldwin T., a HispanicVista.com (http://www.hispanicvista.com/) contributing columnist, lives in Tlalnepantla, Edo de México. E-mail at: R1041643422@aol.com