By Richard N. Baldwin T. /HispanicVista.com
On The Road To Polarization  

 

     The 2006 Mexican election is history, but the process isn't over yet. Not by a long shot. Most interesting is the parallel with the US 2000 election, which after several weeks of uncertainty and count and recount in some precincts, accusations of fraud, and court filings and hearings, the US Supreme Court settled in favor of G.W. Bush.

     Another parallel in the Mexican campaign was the level of acrimony, unheard of in México. On a number of occasions, the winning party was forced to withdraw ads depicting the loosing candidate in inflammatory and unproven allegations. The winning party (PAN) hired top level US campaign professionals that recommended using smear tactics. The loosing party (PRD) didn't catch on to this strategy until too late. The autonomous federal agency, the Federal Election Commission, known as the IFE, is charged to run, monitor and count the votes for federal elections. And like nothing in the US, it can force the removal of advertising that is deemed untruthful or defamatory. On a number of occasions, the IFE required removal of ads by the PAN that were out of bounds. And repeatedly, President Fox was told to stop trying to influence the campaign with public statements.

     The IFE also monitors campaign spending which is limited by law. But never in Mexican history has a presidential election been this close. But then, in the past under a one party dictatorship, this could have never happened.

     The IFE made "errors" in the counting operation after the polls closed. First, there was the quick sampling to announce the preliminary results. Calderón, of the PAN, was declared the winner with about a 1% lead. This was from a sampling that "covered 98%" of the vote. Later, IFE admitted that the 98% sample was actually from a sample of about 70% of the vote. In the meantime, lots of Mexicans thought that these were the final numbers. Then 3 days after the election, the "official" count took place. After a beginning strong lead by López Obrador of the PRD, after an all night of counting, at 4:30 AM it was announced that Calderón had won by 0.58%. But up to now, none of the ballot boxes have been opened and recounted.  Only tally sheets in each precinct have been considered.

     International election observers almost totally agreed that the actual voting process was honest as far as it went. But they strongly criticized the IFE in their "failure to communicate" (sorry Paul). And with bad communication, lots of confidence has been lost.

     A quick peek at the numbers is interesting: Calderón 15,000,284 (35.89%), López Obrador 14,756,350 (35.31%), Madrazo from the trounced PRI, 9,301,441 (22.26%) and "others" 1,827,756 (4.37%). More interesting is the "invalid" votes: 904,604, about 2% of the total vote. México still uses paper ballots. No "hanging chards" but lots of interpretation on deciding whether the cross in the candidate’s box was properly marked.

     It's likely that the PRD will request a total recount (as stated) and that will put everything up for grabs again. Remember that the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) will declare the actual winner, another autonomous election agency that actually determines the winner. This must be done before 6 September. So, brace yourselves for a long haul. TEPJF has the authority to negate an election, to bar questionable ballots, to determine what and how recounts might be done and is the sole authority to declare the winner. Two state governor elections were forced to be repeated in the last few years. So, like famous refrain, "It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings." We must wait for her song.

     Of course, G. W. Bush didn't wait and called congratulations to Calderón right after the first count was in. I wonder if he would have done that if López Obrador had the high count? A lot of bent noses down here over that.

     No matter how this ends, México is and will be a polarized country. Look at the election map of México; you will see a line through the middle of México, running from west to east. To the north of that line, it is solid blue, the color of the PAN. To the south, it is solid yellow, the color of the PRD. 16 states went for Calderón and 16 states, including México City, the DF, went for López Obrador. It looks like the old Mason-Dixon Line. Think about that, if you will.

     The Congress is no better. No majority. The PAN has the most seats, followed by the PRD. Running third, the PRI has a presence. The PRI might aspire to play "king maker" to side with one or the other larger parties (for a price) but that would require a party discipline that the PRI seems to have lost. Probable result in the Congress . . . gridlock. On the other hand, look for Elba Esther Gordillo, a former PRI party leader, ousted by the PRI's Madrazo in his quest for power. She is also the leader of México's largest trade union (teachers). She bolted from the PRI in the middle of the campaign and told her union members to vote PAN. Look for her to become a big power broker in the future.

     This may seem to be a grim picture, but remember that México is a young democracy. This could have never happened in México even a few years ago. These are growing pains that México will overcome. Bank on it.

     But the real number that I will be looking for to see how México progresses would be a reduction of those fleeing to the North to make a decent living.
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Richard N. Baldwin T., a HispanicVista.com (http://www.hispanicvista.com/) contributing columnist, lives in Tlalnepantla, Edo de México. E-mail at: R1041643422@aol.com