By Richard N. Baldwin T. /HispanicVista.com
Driving the Wedge Deeper 

       Sometime in the week of 14 August, the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) will announce the results from a partial recount of the results from a partial recount of the vote of 2 July. If you remember, this extremely close race for the presidency of México has only about 1/2% of separation between the top two contenders. From the looser, Andres Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO) came cries of wide fraud and conspiracy with demands for a vote by vote recount. From the Felipe Calderón camp came a stonewall stance that maintained that the vote was fair and should stand as is.

     In the first days after the election, Calderón and his people referred to him as the "President elect". Later, AMLO started to do the same. Both seemed to forget that only TEPJF actually declares the winner. And the decisions of this court are final with no appeal.

     Established election appeal processes are in place under Mexican election law. After the election, each candidate has a time limit to submit claims to the TEPJF for consideration. AMLO disputed the results from about 40% of the polling places. The court ordered a recount of about 9% of the poll. And while AMLO wanted to recount 100%, he didn't submit any evidence on the remaining 60% but only said that his complaint "inferred" that the total vote should be look into. Mexican law does not recognize complaints without proof. The Calderón people accepted the procedure, but the AMLO camp totally rejected anything short of a 100% recount and responded with mass demonstrations. Sure is hard on traffic in the capital though. Forgotten is that you just don't "demand" anything from the court. Also forgotten is that the court is following the strict Mexican laws covering elections.

     The recount started on 9 Aug. Completion is expected by 13 Aug. AMLO protests have increased intensity with government buildings blocked with masses of demonstrators. Some toll road tollbooths were forced to let all traffic pass without paying. And so it goes. Mexican legal opinion is divided on what path the court will take. Some say that all options will be considered, accepting the present count if the sampling does not show wide spread fraud, expanding the recount if fraud merits it, or even declaring the election null and forcing a new election. Other opinion says that the likely choices will either be accepting the original count, or if fraud is found to simply null the election.

     It should be remembered that the 9% "sample" was chosen by the court to be the most likely to reveal if there is a problem from the list submitted by AMLO. To me, this seems to be a reasonable decision as this is the basis for quality control procedures used by all first world manufacturing plants.

     Let's accept that each candidate has his own heartfelt belief as to the direction that México should take. However we have to accept the fact that México still has a significant portion of its population that has been and still is economically marginal. Mexico has more billionaires than Switzerland. What is worse is that the spread from rich to poor is increasing.

     While we see our northern neighbor with a widening liberal/conservative split, México is heading toward a widening rich/poor split. México has had the time and opportunity to take steps to alleviate this situation, but has instead simply taken the path of letting the poor and underemployed migrate north to find a better life. The US ambassador to México pointed out that this is an "unattainable option".

     It would appear that AMLO has painted himself into a corner on the recount issue but it is possible that he feels that he is a modern day Mahatma Gandhi. The difference is that while Gandhi was opposing foreign rule, México gained their independence from Spain a long time ago. But AMLO has always prospered by taking a martyr role. There is another facet in the comparison in that Gandhi was able to maintain ironclad control to keep his protests non-violent. But can AMLO? Recently, AMLO was able to muster one and a half million supporters in the Zocolo in a peaceful demonstration. There is also the danger of other more "militant" groups taking over peaceful protests as is going on in the Oaxaca teacher's strike.

     Running a protest campaign of doubt on one of our most trustworthy institutions (our relatively new election process) will have long term negative results. It would be better to let the laws of the land take their course and accept the results in a manly fashion.

     One thing is for sure. Regardless of who is declared president, the biggest challenge for the winner will be to unite a very fractured México. And that will involve opening up more opportunity to the vast poor classes to succeed. There is no turning back.
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Richard N. Baldwin T., a HispanicVista.com (http://www.hispanicvista.com/) contributing columnist, lives in Tlalnepantla, Edo de México. E-mail at: R1041643422@aol.com