By Richard N. Baldwin T. /HispanicVista.com
  Whither To, México?

    Felipe Calderón has been officially declared the winner of the 2 July election by the Federal Election Tribunal. No surprise. Earlier, Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has already prevented outgoing president Fox from presenting his last annual Informe (State of the Union message) to a joint session of congress. This is a first for México. But the ruling party (PAN) threw a little trick into the works. Normally, the response from congress is made from a member of an opposition party, like in the US. This time they appointed a member of the PAN. Something like a stacked deck. And with 6,000 armed police surrounding the congressional building, many members from all parties asked how they were going to function in a war like atmosphere.

     The PRD took over the podium and allowed no further actions by the congress. Fox delivered a written version of his speech and never entered the chamber. There was no violence by any one, however.

     I remember that Informe day was once was a holiday. All Mexicans were expected to take the day off and listen or watch the message, mainly a review of all of the nice things that the administration had done for México. Of late it has been turning into more of an exercise in acrimony with catcalls coming from the opposition during the speech. Things change. With no hard evidence of massive fraud, Felipe Calderón, the PAN candidate won with a 0.06% margin. There was no other choice other than to annul the election.

     AMLO's challenges to the election results are centered on three things: Massive fraud (he "demanded" a vote by vote recount). Illegal political advertising by the Calderón campaign. Illegal "meddling" by President Fox in the campaign.

     AMLO pushed the fraud claim the hardest. That is easier to understand by the masses, given México's history of rigged elections (before election law reform). The court did do a sampling of 9% of the votes. Many polling places were picked by AMLO himself. From that 9%, AMLO only picked up about 4,000 votes. Not near enough to justify a full recount. It is reported that Calderón people wanted to agree with the full recount, but Fox nixed the idea. Too bad, because this would have gone a long way to convince the masses that the election was legitimate and cut into AMLO's claims. But Fox never could understand the lower classes in México.

     The claim that Calderón used illegal advertising is correct. Time after time, the PAN was ordered to pull vicious and libelous TV spots and posters. I saw many billboards supporting Calderón, sponsored by business organizations, illegal in México. Calderón had hired Dick Morris from the US to learn how to conduct a dirty campaign. This is not a good strategy to be able to build a working relationship with all parties after the election.

     For the Fox "meddling", repeatedly the IFE (Federal Election Institute) had to tell Fox to shut up as he cast AMLO as a "danger" to México. Maybe AMLO is a threat to México, but presidential participation in the campaign is still illegal. But Fox has always had a problem with "foot-in-the-mouth" disease.

     AMLO would have done better legally to push the last two claims, but he was playing to the masses. AMLO is now in the process of establishing an "alternative" Mexican government. He has vowed to maintain resistance for "years". Much of the capital center is now taken over by supporters of AMLO camping in the streets and in the Zocolo (the main City Square). There will be a possible collision between the government and AMLO's people on 15 and 16 September (Mexican Independence Day) when the president will do the traditional reenactment of the "Cry for Independence" on the night of the 15th. On the 16th, there is the scheduled parade ending in the Zocolo. We have the makings of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.

     AMLO is saying that the "institutions" of México are corrupt and should be ignored. Note that he says "ignored" and not "reformed". Well, as far as corruption and inefficiency, this is general fact. It was just this promised reform of institutions that elected Fox in the first place. Unfortunately, this proved to be beyond Fox, and his score on these issues proved lacking. Outside of a good freedom of information law, little else was accomplished. But you have to have strong political skills to do something like this.

     Calderón has his work cut out for him. Somehow, he has to convince the "other" México that he cares for them. He will have a working majority in the congress, but lacking the charisma of Fox, and with a rival rump government to deal with it is not going to be easy.

     AMLO says that he will "prevent" Calderón from taking office on 1 December. One wonders when AMLO will cross the line of outright sedition.
  
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Richard N. Baldwin T., a HispanicVista.com (http://www.hispanicvista.com/) contributing columnist, lives in Tlalnepantla, Edo de México. E-mail at: R1041643422@aol.com