By Richard N. Baldwin T. /HispanicVista.com

From Mexico

By Richard N. Baldwin T / Hispanic Vista.com
It Is Going to Take a Lot Longer Than You Think

     With both the United States and México (shortly) to be in full campaign mode, thing are happening quickly. Let’s review some of the things that I wrote about in my last column on how the Republicans can loose the 2012 election.

     Entitlements are the big elephant in the room. And remember that entitlements are where the real big money is. While Health Care (Obamacare) might be the simplest to reform because it has not already fully implemented it is going to be a big, big fight. And especially in Social Security, there have been failed attempts over many years to put that on a sound fiscal basis, such as slowly raising the eligibility level. All have failed. We should remember that when Social Security was implemented, the average age expectancy was in the high sixties.  Now, it is in the eighties. In addition there were five active workers for every retiree. And finally, there was the fictitious “lock box” in which the contributions were supposedly to be kept. Unfortunately, that has not prevented congressional thieves from removing these funds and replacing these with uncollectable IOUs. The lock box is fiction.

     As a side issue on Social Security finances, as late as two years ago, Social Security reported that the total sum of contributions” to the fund by illegal aliens (who will not be able to collect any of their contributions) has prolonged, by at least four years the tipping point for bankruptcy.

     The point here is that the changes required to the entitlements has to be done slowly but as soon as possible to put into place.  Otherwise, you are looking at a Greece or the UK with riots in the streets.

     I should also point out that the main job requirement for politicians is to be a good liar. It has nothing to do with party, but a lot to do with how long they stay in office. Consider this point that happened just recently. On the final agreement of the 2011 budget agreement, the Republican Speaker of the House announced that this agreement cut between one and two trillion from the proposed budget. Shortly after that, the Democrat leader of the Senate announced that one trillion had been cut. And three or four days after that, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated that a few hundred billion (a trillion is one thousand billions). Who is the liar?

     On immigration: Too late, Obama realizes that the Hispanic vote is needed for any chance for reelection. He blew his chance while concentrating on Obamacare and when he tried to get the Dream Act, too late, and he failed. Now the prior champion of sweeping deportations is trying to do a reform by executive order. Outside of the fact that executive orders do not extend, as law does, beyond the present term, he is introducing an extremely toxic “solution” to the racial mix here. I can hear the screaming of the Republic extreme right wing chanting amnesty. It is of interest that in the first Republican debate, this subject was only brought up with only the word “amnesty” by three of the debaters.

     The big question is what Governor Perry will address this important issue. His record in Texas shows that he has been far more realistic on this issue than other Republican candidates, but will he take a sharp turn to the hard right for votes in the convention?

     But back to jobs and economics: The debt can has been kicked sown the road again. Not that we have another “special” appointed committee to submit real changes. A committee that will be behind closed doors and selected from the extremes from both liberals and conservatives to guarantee gridlock. And why would the president pay any more attention to whatever this committee comes up with than any of the other “select” committees in the recent past. This is doomed to fail.

   Make no mistake about this, time is running out fast, and the necessary changes will take time to implement. And the longer that it takes, the transition will be harder. Already, the global economy is heading for recession number two.

     I am waiting to see if Obama is going to keep pressing for “Green Jobs” in his upcoming jobs speech. So far Green Jobs has been an abysmal failure. Just recently two of Obama’s showcase solar panel makers went belly up. And the one million-dollar government loan guarantee will end up being paid by the taxpayers. Reason? Solar panels are simply not competitive.

     About a mile from where I live, a new expressway extension has been built. All the lighting is by solar panels. The government did a cost study on the project. They determined that the electricity cost produced by solar panels was twelve times the cost of using standard electricity.

     Not a very good outlook. The 2012 election might well be decided on who will be voting and who will remain home on Election Day.

 _________________________________________________________-
Richard N. Baldwin T., a HispanicVista.com (www.hispanicvista.com) contributing columnist, lives in Tlalnepantla, Edo de México. E-mail at: R1041643422@aol.com