By Richard N. Baldwin T. /HispanicVista.com

By Richard N. Baldwin T. /HispanicVista.com
The Lessons Of Oaxaca 

     As this is penned in November, there is no way to tell exactly what the situation of the rebellion in Oaxaca will be. (Yes, the "R" word was chosen carefully.) But one thing for sure, it is not over. Not for a long time.

     Some are saying that the perpetrator was none other than Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), the narrowly defeated presidential candidate who won't quite admit defeat in the 2 July election in México. But there are some that try to blame everything going wrong in México on AMLO. Let's look at the history of the Oaxaca debacle:

     It started out as a more or less peaceful strike by the state branch of the national teacher's union over mainly pay issues. Note that the national teacher's union is headed up by Ester Elba Gordillo, who was expelled from her party, the "center" PRI, for being too far to the right of center and cooperating to much with the center right PAN (who won the presidential election and now holds the highest number of seats in both houses in congress). You could not call Gordillo a "leftist" by any stretch.

     Things took a bad turn from actions by the Oaxaca governor, Ulises Ruiz (from the PRI) and a hopelessly corrupt heavy handed dictator type from the old school of the worst in the history of the former PRI ruling party. By making a deadly run on a demonstration in the Oaxaca City Zócalo, what started out as a labor strike turned into a lightening rod for dissidents from every stripe, mainly from the extreme left. And the cry then became the removal of Ruiz from office. This remains the main non-negotiable demand of the insurgents.

     It should be pointed out that many, if not most, of the killings in the uprising are attributed to the local police. And it was the killing of a US journalist that finally forced outgoing President Fox to dispatch 4,500 federal police to restore law and order in Oaxaca. It is noteworthy that at least two local police have been arrested in that killing. Now, things took on a more national dimension.

     The Mexican national election of 2 July turned out to be more of a vote against than a vote for. It was a vote against the PRI, with some voting for the center left (PRD) and some going center right (PAN). The PRI went from the most powerful (by number of congress members) to the third most powerful. The PAN picked up the most seats, followed by the PRD. But no party has the two-thirds vote to overcome a veto. So, the ruling PAN struck an alliance with the PRI. And although most of both parties verbally are telling Ruiz to step down, neither the PRI nor the PAN will back that up with an official congressional action. The PRI will not go against "one of their own", no matter how corrupt he is, and the PAN will not break the fragile alliance with the PRI. Therefore, stalemate. Since Ruiz won't quit, the insurrection goes on.

     It is only of late that the PRD has given open support to the APPO (the loose confederation of Marxists and union members in Oaxaca). To try to blame this mess on AMLO by some is just wrongheaded. He stayed clear of this in the beginning and only has given open support after this has been going on for more than five months.

     The incoming administration of President-elect Calderón has, by necessity, been pushed from the traditional center right toward the center, recognizing that substantially more attention has to be given to the inequity that exists in our southern states. As Agustin Carstens, the likely incoming secretary of finance points out, greatly increased federal funding is necessary there to bridge the severe income gap in that area. Incomes now, in the three poorest southern states, are only about one half of the Mexican average wages. This is perfect recipe for social disaster.

     So far the Mexican Federal Police in Oaxaca have been not only forceful, but also disciplined in their response. But as things are going now, it looks like it will turn into a house to house operation rather than just clearing the Zócalo. Welcome to urban warfare. And it remains that the prime solution to at least have meaningful talks about the situation is the removal of Governor Ruiz.

     México is entering an era of something new; namely that the people are demanding a more effective government and more of an opportunity to better control their destiny. We see this trend appearing in many areas of the world, and we are seeing it in México.  
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Richard N. Baldwin T., a HispanicVista.com (http://www.hispanicvista.com/) contributing columnist, lives in Tlalnepantla, Edo de México. E-mail at: R1041643422@aol.com