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Of all the measures one uses to predict election returns, money and turnout are the two most important facets to examine.

Everyone remembers when self-described "Surfer Chick" Donna Frye ran an illegal write in campaign for San Diego mayor in 2004 and disrupted the democratic process that denied the San Diego voters their say in legally electing a mayor.

After Mayor Dick Murphy survived a strong challenge by a County Supervisor thanks to Donna Frye illegally splitting the vote into thirds, he resigned and a special election was called for July 26th. Frye ran first and Jerry Sanders, San Diego’s former police chief ran second. Sanders and another moderate Republican received almost 60 percent of the July vote.

Sanders leads in all polls as the general election approaches on November 8th.

The money story:

"The (Donna) Frye campaign (according to the San Diego Union/Tribune) has amassed about $484,000 so far, and Sanders has raised more than $1.2 million, according to campaign disclosure forms filed at City Hall yesterday." Sanders wins the money race.

The Union reports that: "A Washington, D.C., labor union spent $123,000 on mailers supporting Frye over a four-day span this month, according to forms filed with the City Clerk's Office yesterday. The money came from the Hotel Employees and Restaurant Employees International Union TIP Educational Fund."

That’s a whopping 25 percent of her entire campaign funds coming from one labor union almost three thousand miles away. But that’s not all the union money Frye is getting.

The Union reports that, "Also, labor groups from the county to the state level have spent money promoting Frye." How much? We won’t know until after the election. It seems clear, however, that Frye is the handmaiden of organized labor in this race, the same organized labor that is so anti-Hispanic.

Perhaps that’s why Datamar.com reports that in their latest survey, Hispanics are supporting Frye 46 percent to Sanders 45 percent. This shocking split proves beyond doubt that Frye cannot win. If she can’t get 80 to 90 percent of the Hispanic vote, she can’t win. Why, because the most important votes are in her weakest areas.

Money aside, voters are the ultimate measure of the election.

The most important 155,274 people in San Diego’s history live north of the east/west major artery named Miramar Road, the area called North City.

These people can vote for Mayor; these voters may well decide the city’s direction for the next generation.

These voters make up 26 percent of the 599,995 registered voters in the city eligible to vote in the race between Donna Frye and Jerry Sanders.

The election could be won in the North City of San Diego on turnout alone. The citywide vote turnout is expected to be less than a third of the registered electorate, thus adding gorilla-like weight to the North City Vote which historically has been higher than the city as a whole.

A quick check of historical voting shows that San Diego Mayor candidates who have carried North City since 1971 won their election.

Even as several North City precincts voted against the Ball Park Proposition C in 1998, the majority of North City voters voted in favor of the proposition.

The latest citywide mayoral surveys by Datamar, Inc. give us a good look at the mayor’s race. Jerry Sanders appears to be pulling away from Donna Frye, upping his lead from plus 6 points in September to plus 11 points on October 20.

Demographically:

Fyre has a 3-point lead among union households while Sanders has a 16-point lead among non-union households. Only 21-percent of San Diego households are union, 76-percent are not. North City would have even fewer union households.

Among those who label themselves politically "Middle-of-the-road" Sanders has a 15-point lead, among "somewhat conservative" plus 54-points and among the "very conservative," Sanders has an 86-point lead. These voter types dominate special elections.
Educationally, the survey reflects that 21 percent of respondents had some college. 41-percent graduated college and 25-percent had some post-graduate work. Only 9 percent are high school only or no high school. Better-educated people have higher vote turnouts. North City has far more college-educated people than the city as a whole as reflected by income.

North City is the better-educated, higher income portion of the city that historically produces higher vote turnout and is composed of the historically most effective voters in the city.

Del Mar Heights, for example, has, according to the Census Bureau, an annual per capita -family income of over $63,000, the highest in the city. Historically, whichever candidate carries Del Mar Heights wins the city election.

South San Diego’s San Ysidro, on the other hand, has a per-family income that barely meets government-defined poverty levels. Vote turnout reflects those income disparities. Lower income produces lower vote turnout.

Given this fact, we come upon a fascinating scenario.

The highest income people in the North City joining with the poorest part, the Hispanic South City in electing a new White male Republican mayor with a superb track record of dealing with Hispanics.

While Chief of Police, Sanders promoted many Hispanic police officers into positions of responsibility that lead to San Diego’s first Hispanic police chief. Hispanic police officers, frozen out of the higher ranks for 150 years made tremendous progress under Chief Sanders.

"Surfer Chick" Donna Frye has never done anything for Hispanics for the simple reason that none inhabit her "Surfer" world. In other words, she wouldn’t know a Hispanic if she tripped on one. Hispanics are the largest group in the City of San Diego.

25 percent of the city is Hispanic; the youngest median age in the city is Hispanic and the Hispanic population is projected to grow by 85 percent in the next decade. Donna Frye doesn’t know these facts. If she did, one could find something in her record that indicates she knows something about Hispanics, but one can’t.

Given that, Hispanics are breaking for Sanders, as well they should. This race looks like the last one in New York City in which Hispanics broke for the Republican and helped elect him. It looks like Sanders will win and he will win with a coalition of wealthy Whites and Hispanics thankful for recognition by a former police chief who didn’t ignore them like so many had in the past.

Contreras’s newest book—THE ILLEGAL ALIEN: A DAGGER INTO THE HEART OF AMERICA published by Floricanto Press is available and reviewed at www.amazon.com and www.barnesandnoble.com