HispanicVista Columnists

Environment News
Frontera NorteSur
January 6, 2008

The latest population estimates from Mexico’s National Population Council (Conapo) project steady population growth in the six northern Mexican border states through 2030. But in a region confronted with acute water supply and chronic drought problems, as well as a host of other environmental challenges, the question immediately arises: How sustainable is the growth?

According to Conapo, more than 25 million people will reside in the states of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas in 2030. If Conapo’s projections prove accurate, the six-state total will account for about one-fifth of Mexico’s projected population of 127,205, 586 people in 2030. Continuing with their historic growth, the three largest northern Mexican border cities of Tijuana, Mexicali and Ciudad Juarez will nearly double their current populations during the next 22 years. According to Conapo, Tijuana will grow to a city of 2,422,071 residents, Mexicali to 1,410,754 and Ciudad Juarez to 2,406,411. Another estimate for Ciudad Juarez recently cited in the city’s Diario newspaper predicted the city will have 1,804,146 inhabitants in 2030.

Conapo’s projected rate of population growth for Ciudad Juarez is well below levels registered from 1980 to 1990 when the annual rate of population growth averaged 3.56 percent per year. Coinciding with the first years of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Ciudad Juarez’s annual population growth averaged 4.34 percent in the decade of 1990-2000.

A classic city of migrants, Ciudad Juarez drew its first population influx from the states of Chihuahua, Zacatecas, Coahuila and Durango. The city later attracted many new residents from southern states including Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas.

Conapo’s projections assume a much higher annual population growth higher than 2000-2005, years when many foreign-owned export plants shut down or relocated elsewhere. With jobs scarce, the population growth slowed to a yearly rate of 1.32 percent.

“Juarez is one of the points of concentration of young populations because of the quantity of jobs that it generates,” said Dr. Rodolfo Rubio Salas of El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, “but it also suffers the effects when this activity is dependent on the international economic cycles…”

To put the numbers in perspective: In 1950, Ciudad Juarez was a city of 131,308 residents; by 2005, it had grown by ten times to more than 1.3 million inhabitants.

Hosting a population of approximately 750,000 people, Mexicali, Baja California, highlights the environmental challenges facing the entire border region, to one degree or another. The city is subjected to winter inversions, and many old, polluting US cars ply unpaved roads. In 2007, Mexicali saw more than 60 days in which Particulate Matter (PM) levels exceeded the Mexican environmental standard. Mexicali produces 1,000 tons of garbage every day, and an estimated 600,000 old tires stacked up on the Centinela hill provide a potential breeding ground for mosquitoes that could transmit the West Nile virus and dengue.

“We occupy third place (nationally) in pollution,” said Israel Camacho Gastelum, Baja California delegate for the federal Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources. “Dust, discarded tires, automobile and household batteries are some of the things that cause these troubles.”

Water Woes

Almost across the board, climate change scientists and other environmental experts point to drought and water scarcities as the future for northern Mexico and the US border region. Talk of a “mega-drought” is even in the air. In Mexico, Victor Magana, a researcher with the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), said climate change might lead to 5 to 10 percent less rain by 2040, a decrease that could translate into between 10-20 percent less available water for consumption. An estimated 55 percent of agricultural and 43 percent of urban water consumption in Mexico is already lost due to excessive irrigation and leaks.

“If we add to this the serious problems of river and lake pollution, it is clear that even with uncertainty it’s urgent to seriously begin tackling this problem,” Magana said.

In Mexico, the annual amount of available water dropped from 11,500 cubic meters per resident in 1955 to 4,900 in 1999. Mexico’s National Water Commission estimates that the figure will plummet to 3,500 cubic meters annually by 2020. Already, in parts of Baja California and the Rio Grande region, less than 2,500 cubic meters of water is presently available every year for each resident. According to Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics, the country is losing 6 billion cubic meters of groundwater every year. Of Mexico’s 653 aquifers, 104 are considered over-exploited, with 17 experiencing high levels of saline intrusion- nine of which are situated on the Baja California Peninsula.

“Without a doubt, the continued tendency of unsustainable use of hydrological resources will be a limiting factor in economic development and social equity,” concluded Mexico’s National Water Commission in a report last year.

Mexican border communities in the Mexicali Valley and the Paso del Norte region rely on US water deliveries from the Colorado River and Rio Grande. Competition for Colorado River water is fierce, with cities industrial users and farmers haggling over an increasingly valuable resource.

Drawn from the Hueco aquifer, Ciudad Juarez’s current supply of water, is expected to expire within the next 20 years. The Chihuahua state government recently announced a new massive water project that will pump new water from the Mesilla aquifer, a hydrological resource for both Mexico and the US. Despite the declining water supplies, large-scale developments are on the drawing board for both sides of the border like Jeronimo-Santa Teresa, a planned binational city of more than 100,000 people.

Some observers question the practice of continually drilling for more water in the absence of stricter conservation and development policies.

“Sustainable economic growth has to be viewed in the context of a physical space that has its limitations,” said Jorge Salas-Plata, a professor and researcher at the Autonomous University of Ciudad Juarez. “While the availability of housing and employment is certainly important, planning is needed so that things are done in harmony and equilibrium with the physical space.”

Although Ciudad Juarez is tapping into cross-border aquifers, nearby rural communities depend on the Rio Grande for irrigation purposes. Up river, the Rio Grande’s water, whose flow depends on the winter snow pack of northern mountains, is entirely allocated in New Mexico. A recent study by University of New Mexico civil engineering professor Julie Coonrod and New Mexico State University economist Brian Hurd warned that higher temperatures could lead to more water evaporation, possibly resulting in a one-fourth drop of the river's average flow during the next 75 years. In Chihuahua and Sonora, deserts are expanding and pushing rural communities to the brink.

The Wildcard of Climate Change

Of course, Conapo’s population projections are based on demographic rates which are ultimately influenced by changing economic and geographic forces. It’s difficult to predict with certainty the nature or health of the border economy in 2030, or the impacts of climate change elsewhere in Mexico and Central America that could send larger numbers of people to the Mexico-US border. Riding a wave of tremendous growth, planners in northern Mexico as well as on the US side of the borderlands are contemplating expensive water desalinization plants as a way of sustaining the economic boom.

On the other hand, persistent drought and dried up water supplies could send people fleeing both south and north. Jorge Zavala of UNAM’S Center for Atmospheric Sciences speculates that border residents could be drawn to central Mexico where water supplies might be more reliable.

“Without controlling global warming, the country will face a devastating panorama within the next 25 years,” said Luis Manuel Guerra, president of the Autonomous Institute for Ecological Research. “It would not make sense to continue thinking about employment, security, health and education if we are in a devastated environment.”

UNAM’S Victor Magana said a sustainable water policy should focus on recharging aquifers and recuperating the environmental integrity of surface water supplies. “This could result in a process of adaptation that would reduce our vulnerability to climate change in the water sector,” he said
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Sources: San Francisco Examiner/Associated Press, January 1, 2008. Norte, November 28, 2007 and December 31, 2007. Articles by Francisco Lujan and Nohemi Barraza. La Jornada, February 10, 2007 and December 24, 2007. Articles by Angelica Enciso L. and Mike Davis. El Universal, February 24, 2007; May 23, 2007; December 29, 2007. Articles by Julieta Martinez, Belen Merino, Rosa Maria Mendez. El Diario de Juarez, March 22, 2007; November 18 and 21, 2007. Articles by Horacio Carrasco Sosa and the Reforma news agency. Albuquerque Journal, October 23, 2007. Article by John Fleck.

Frontera NorteSur (FNS): on-line, U.S.-Mexico border news Center for Latin
American and Border Studies New Mexico State University Las Cruces, New Mexico
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