Guest Column
Iraq will do for McCain, What Iran did for Reagan
- Will McCain be the beneficiary of this uneasy truce? If Iraq remains volatile, clearly the democratic presidential candidate benefits from the instability. Almost 30 years since Carter lost his seat, is the GOP once again playing political football with American lives in order to win the White House?
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- Robert Miranda, a frequent contributing columnist to HispanicVista.com (http://www.hispanicvista.com/) is a national award winning columnist, Latino community activist and Editor-in-Chief of the Milwaukee Spanish Journal. Email at: rmiranda@wi.rr.com
By Robert Miranda
McCain stands to gain so much if Iraq, in the next few months, can show sustained stability and relative peace since the implementation of the surge. McCain will declare emphatically that the surge of U.S. troops operating in Iraq is working. McCain will use this period of stability in Iraq as his example to American voters that he too has sound judgment, which proves he’s ready to be Commander-in-Chief of American armed forces.
Indeed, McCain supported the invasion of Iraq and still does. He called for a change in strategy that included a surge in U.S. troops to gain control of Baghdad. When Democrats called for reductions in troop levels in Iraq, McCain advocated for an increase (surge) in U.S. troop levels. McCain stood by Bush when the surge policy was implemented in March 2007.
A year later, according to McCain, the surge seems to be working because sectarian violence is declining. McCain appears to have made a sound judgment. But is the situation in Iraq stabilizing because of the surge? Could stability in Iraq be caused by U.S. officials cutting deals with powerful anti- American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army?
The Mahdi Army rose to prominence when it spearheaded the first major armed confrontation against the U.S.-led occupation forces in Iraq from the Shi'ite community in April 2004. Muqtada Al Sadr's Mahdi Army attempted to interfere with security in Baghdad; the militia attempted to occupy and gain control of police stations and government buildings.
Since the invasion of Iraq by U.S. led coalition forces, Al Sadr’s army has grown from a few hundred to almost 60,000 according to a report released by the Iraqi Study Group in December 2006. In April 2007 the latest “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq” report released by the Department of Defense declared the Mahdi Army “has replaced Al Qaeda in Iraq as the most dangerous accelerant of potentially self-sustaining sectarian violence in Iraq.”
George W. Bush understands that a stable Iraq is important for McCain and the GOP if they wish to win the White House in November 2008. The GOP-Republican Party- knows that an unstable Iraq can be a powerful political tool to be used against the GOP and McCain by any Democrat challenging him for control of the White House.
That’s why McCain and the GOP say the surge is helping to stabilize Iraq, but is it really? Or are we witnessing once again an orchestrated effort to give the American people the illusion of peace settling in Iraq? The surge strategy in Iraq appears to mirror the strategy to delay the release of the hostages in Iran, which ultimately caused the down-fall of former President Jimmy Carter.
During that presidential election campaign the Reagan-Bush team feared a Jimmy Carter "October surprise". They were concerned that former president Jimmy Carter would be able to gain the release of the hostages before the November elections. The release of the hostages would propel Carter to victory. Richard Werthlin, Reagan-Bush’s 1980 presidential campaign pollster, saw the hostages coming home as the biggest threat to Reagan-Bush White House bid.
The concern was so real that it caused the Reagan-Bush campaign to form the “October Surprise Working Group”. Richard Allen, Reagan's foreign policy advisor, was the head of the group. William Casey, Reagan's 1980 campaign manager, who was later appointed CIA director, was a member of the group. The group also included Vice Presidential candidate George Bush. The group was formed to keep Carter from winning the release of the hostages before the elections.
According to the “October Surprise” theory, members of the Reagan-Bush campaign cut a secret deal with the Ayatollah Khomeini. The deal called for the Iranians to not release the hostages before the November 4, 1980 presidential election. The conspiracy theory is outlined in a book written by Gary Sick entitled, October Surprise: America's Hostages in Iran and the Election of Ronald Reagan.
As the war in Iraq continues to become a critical issue during this presidential campaign season, it becomes ironic that America’s most ardent menace in Iraq, cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, has neutralized his Mahdi Army during this presidential campaign season.
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