Guest Column
Is Paraguay Set to be the Next Latin American Country to Lean to the Left?
Is Paraguay Set to be the Next Latin American Country to Lean to the Left?
COHA Series on
Forthcoming Latin American Elections:
Paraguay’s Fernando Lugo Méndez wants to be the next president
while current President Nicanor Duarte contributes to the
institution of democracy by not running for re-election
Paraguay Presidential Election April 2008
After deciding not to seek a constitutional amendment to allow for
his consecutive re-election, the upcoming April 2008 presidential
vote in Paraguay will close out President Nicanor Duarte’s
relatively tranquil first, and only, five year term. This election
could very well be the first in decades to pose a serious threat to
the seemingly eternal rule of the long-tainted and long ruling
Colorado Party, which has controlled Paraguay since 1947, including
the decades-long venal and brutal dictatorship of General Alfredo
Stroessner. The likely candidate to successfully contest this
bilious legacy is former Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo Méndez, who
aspires to appear on the presidential ticket representing the
opposition, El Partido Concertación Nacional.
Lugo visited Washington June 18 and met with officials at the State Department; even though he is not yet an official candidate. Additionally, he delivered a lecture at George Washington University titled “Political Alternatives to the World’s Longest Ruling Party.” Maintaining good terms with the U.S., gaining widespread public support in Paraguay, and solidifying international friendships seem to be the basis of his good-natured campaign agenda.
Background of a Bishop
Lugo was ordained a Catholic priest in 1977 and became Bishop of
San Pedro, Paraguay in 1994. Although he resigned in 2005 to pursue
his political ambitions, Lugo still has congressional impediments to
confront as Paraguay’s constitution bans members of the clergy from
seeking political office. The Vatican has not yet formally accepted
his resignation and members of the ruling Colorado Party are using
every means to establish that Lugo’s candidacy would be
unconstitutional. However, Lugo has a first rank team of
constitutional law experts who have confirmed that his candidacy
would pose no legal challenges. On the contrary, the obstacles he
must overcome to secure the candidacy are entirely political in
nature. If Lugo only had managed a small percentage of popular
support, his run for president would not be an issue. But a recent
poll conducted by the Paraguayan newspaper Ultima Hora, showed that
40.8 percent of respondents would support Lugo as the candidate of
the opposition Concertación Nacional, making him a disturbingly
credible threat to the Colorados.
The Tides Are Turning
Although President Duarte, who appears to be an inherently decent
man, has tried to rule from a more centrist standpoint than his
predecessors in the extremely conservative Colorado party, his
refusal to fully take on Paraguay’s conventional elites, in light of
the recent leftward shift in Latin America, has allowed the
country’s left to strike out against him. Almost 50 percent of
Paraguay’s population lives on less than $2 a day and 38 percent of
the citizenry are either unemployed or under-employed. Decades of
rule by the Colorados have enriched the wealthy at the expense of
the indigenous population and ordinary Paraguayans. This
disenfranchised majority in Paraguay views Lugo as “The Bishop of
the Poor,” and as their only chance to build change from the bottom
up with an honest administration that could lead Paraguay into the
future.
In 2006, over 50,000 demonstrators took over the capital, Asunción, to protest against Colorado rule. Unionized workers, as well as leftist and indigenous organizations, began to unite behind Lugo, who is from one of Paraguay’s poorest areas and who has often spoken out forcefully against poverty and inequality. The “Bishop of the Poor” has praised Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez for his work to help Venezuela’s poverty-grasped population. Still, Lugo has made an effort to distance himself from other populist leaders in Latin America by focusing more explicitly on social inequality in Paraguay. Lugo challenged the country’s traditional elite, questioning why “there are so many differences between the 500 families who live with a first-world standard of living while the great majority live in a poverty that borders on misery.”
Social Justice
In regards to the influence that neighboring governments such as
left-leaning Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia would potentially have
on his presidency, Lugo commented, “Paraguay is feeling the new
winds growing across the region … But it cannot be like Venezuela
because it has no oil. Nor can it be like Bolivia because it has no
natural gas and it can’t be like Chile because it has no copper.”
Even though Paraguay does not have the resources of these countries,
their loosely shared socialist/populist vision could help form some
of Lugo’s policies, adding another link to the chain of Latin
American countries with autonomous policies independent of the
region’s traditional pro-U.S. stance.
It has been 17 years since Paraguay’s supposed transition to
democracy began and the citizens for the most part have yet to
receive the benefits of a representative, responsive government.
Campesinos have been killed for defending their land rights and
protesting Colorado Party rule, and at least one dissenting
journalist has “disappeared.” Lugo believes that iconoclastic
opinions are necessary to strengthen democracy and although he
supports some of Chávez’s social policies, he has distanced himself
from the Venezuelan leader and his decision not to renew the
contract of an opposition TV station, RCTV. Lugo said, “I don’t
condemn [Chávez] or support him … but I wouldn’t do it … it would be
a step backwards for Paraguay.” However, Lugo is a supporter of
Chávez’s land reform policy and would incorporate some form of
prospect for redistributive justice into his presidential agenda
along with agricultural reform, reassertion of national sovereignty
in the country’s energy and policy and opposition to the presence of
U.S. troops in Paraguay, in contrast to the orientation of the
present government.
Implications for the U.S.
President Duarte was the first Paraguayan head of state ever to
visit the White House and as the Bush administration continues to
broaden its “War on Terror,” Paraguay is looked upon as a desirable
location for the U.S. to project a military presence. Paraguay is
extremely important to the U.S. military because of its triple
border with Argentina and Brazil, known as a haven for drug and
contraband trafficking as well as for a large Middle Eastern
Community. Additionally, Paraguay’s close proximity to Bolivia could
allow outside forces to closely monitor Bolivian President Evo
Morales, a sometimes strong critic of Washington’s tactics in Latin
America. Paraguay’s normally friendly relationship with the U.S
could be jeopardized by the election of a populist president.
Nevertheless, based on Lugo’s warm welcome in Washington a number of
days ago, it is apparent that the State Department is making an
initial effort to appease the presidential hopeful. Anticipatory
lobbying by Washington may be further motivated by the Bush
administration’s concern that Lugo’s election could compromise
Duarte’s intention to enter into a free trade agreement with the
U.S. and progress toward a military cooperation agreement.
For now, Lugo is playing it safe with both the U.S. and Venezuela, with a correct, even friendly policy towards the two adversaries. After all, painting opposition candidates as pawns of Chávez may have cost the left elections in Peru and even, possibly, Mexico. Paraguay does not presently have a well defined foreign policy but if Lugo became president in 2008, he would be especially keen to define the country’s bilateral relationship with the U.S. and Venezuela as well as Brazil. He says Paraguay must be respected by and placed “… on an equal footing with the U.S.” Lugo also hopes that the long standing tradition of amiable relations between Paraguay and the U.S. will lead to a brighter future for both nations. Lugo already has made an effort to show that he wants to be engaged with the U.S., while at the same time, he praises Chávez and maintains close contact with Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa. What Lugo seems to be saying is that he wants access to the U.S. market, as well as to be a beneficiary of Chávez’s now well known generosity.
Lugo’s Prospective Policies
Lugo’s goal for a relationship with Washington is at least partially
motivated by market accessibility. Under most of Duarte’s
leadership, Paraguay had been looked upon as a natural ally of the
U.S. as his ideology is not consistent with that of the new
generation of left-leaning leaders which currently comprise most of
MERCOSUR, the southern common market. Paraguay has been a long-time
member of the bloc but does not feel that it is noticeably
benefiting from the present arrangement. This became a motivating
factor in Paraguay’s allowing of U.S. troops to be granted immunity
by Asunción even though Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay were opposed
to this arrangement.
In spite of the government’s repeated recriminations and outcries, Paraguay’s membership in MERCOSUR has not provided the country with the new investment necessary for its economic development. Out of economic hardship, Duarte has turned to Washington for a closer fiscal relationship, which has had military implications as well. The present relationship with Washington could change if Lugo were elected president. Sometimes referred to as a “radical priest,” he is likely to steer Paraguay towards the left, making him a leader more akin to Chávez (at least in the tone of his social justice message) than Duarte. A left-leaning government does not necessarily mean an anti-American government and the U.S. needs to abandon its Cold War, Reagan-era stance that seems to assume this view. Furthermore, in a recent interview Lugo called his relationship with the U.S. Embassy “very cordial and open” and said it would remain so if he became president. While it is still too early to make definitive judgments regarding near-future developments, from a pragmatic point of view it would be beneficial for Lugo to remain on good terms with all of Paraguay’s trading partners as well as its geographically immediate neighbors. Nevertheless, based on his support for Presidents Chávez, Correa, and Morales, the present strong U.S. military ties with Paraguay are likely to weaken if Lugo were to become president. With Lugo’s first priority being “the better distribution of wealth for the benefit of the poor majority,” the Chavez model of democracy may prove to be Lugo’s best navigational device, although the influence of orthodox Brazil may prove too omnipresent to resist.
Presidential Ticket for Lugo
Among the delegates of the nine political parties which comprise the
Concertación Nacional, there is consensus that Lugo should head up
the organization’s presidential ticket. “I didn’t think this was
going to happen…It was a question of 30 years of priest life, 11
years of being a bishop and getting into the swamp of Paraguay
politics…But I think I’ll be the candidate of this coalition,” Lugo
declared.
Lugo has an affinity to certain campesino and socialist movements and wants to create a more transparent government. He acknowledges that the country’s long-held practice of corruption is not easy to change and that in five years he will be unlikely to introduce many drastic policy alterations; but, he hopes to start moving Paraguay in the right direction. “Saying corruption is going to disappear is like saying sin is going to disappear and I don’t think that’s going to happen.” However, there is potential for administrative accountability and he believes that his first priority is to ensure a transparent administration. Lugo feels that, “If the head is rotten, the whole body must be rotten” and he continues to assure Paraguayans that, if given a chance, he will be an ethical and responsible leader.
Does He Have a Chance?
Currently, the political dynamics of Paraguay are shifting. In light
of the recent demonstration in Asunción against the Colorado Party,
the overall frustration of ordinary citizens and the reception of
Lugo’s leadership as an outside figure who has the capacity to bring
together diverse groups, the upcoming election could bring about a
radical change in Paraguay’s history. If Lugo’s candidacy becomes
official, he stands a good chance of winning the election. Lugo has
the trust of a growing number of Paraguayans because unlike many of
the other political candidates, he has no background of corruption
and comes from a respected institution–the Catholic Church. Although
the U.S. view of the Catholic Church has been tarnished amid recent
scandals, 96 percent of Paraguayans still hold the Church in high
esteem. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, his candidacy will be
a response to a grassroots petition for new, responsible leadership.
Further improving Lugo’s chances, the two other top candidates bring nothing new to the table. The current Vice President, Luis Castiglioni, is considered corrupt, and any support the current minister of education, Blanca Ovelar, would be able to generate among female voters would be counter-balanced by her alignment as a faithful militant of President Duarte, making her blend into the crowd of other candidates. The Colorado party has been in power for over 60 years, telling something of its durability, but its leadership has done practically nothing to show that it possesses a high-minded vision for the country or the capability to bring it about. Similarly, it has been unable to handle the endemic corruption and other growing problems that include narcotics trafficking and poverty.
Lugo at least offers some hope, due to the strength of his character, for the start of genuine change in Paraguay. His humble background is shared with the majority of citizens and his clean reputation and past affiliation with the liberal wing of the Catholic Church make him an ideal leader for the majority of ordinary Paraguayans. If Lugo confirms his candidacy in January and embraces the will of the people, as many expect he will do, Paraguay may very well be the next Latin American country to engage in the tug of war between a moderate leftist ideology and conservative status quo forces traditionally aligned with the U.S. The prospect of a center-left Paraguay with a moderate leadership, while not necessarily Washington’s preference, could show the Bush administration that Latin American countries do not need to be either “With us or against us,” but that they may exercise autonomy by catering to their own national interests, while landing somewhere to the left of the ideological middle.
This analysis was prepared by COHA Research
Associate Jenna Schaeffer
June 29th, 2007
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