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Guest Column

Mexico Votes Toward Its Future by Going to the Past
By Carlos Luken

Political pundits believe that Mexico's turbulent transition to democracy began in the 2000 elections when the country's first democratically elected president, abruptly ousted the  autocratic PRI party that had dominated Mexican politics  for almost a century. This notion was reinforced in 2006 when the PAN party again narrowly won a bitterly challenged democratically held election that thrust Felipe Calderon as Mexico 's current president.

Vicente Fox's 2000 victory was considered the cornerstone of Mexico 's advance to modernity. Hopes ran high as Fox's success also brought an unprecedented opposition majority to congress.  For many everything was in place to advance the country into a contemporary political era and set the stage for Latin America 's evolution from repressive regimes to democratic governments.

But something went off track! After seven decades of being ruled by absolute power, many Mexicans were baffled by the prospect of an accessible president willing to share his presidency with was until then, a token  legislative body  whose sole function was to rubberstamp the president's imperial edicts.

Fox's outlandish campaign promises and ingenuousness coupled with the public's confusion and overanxious expectations proved to be the unraveling of the new administration. In the following mid-term elections, Pan's congressional majority shank significantly and signaled an unexpected return for the previously expelled PRI.

Felipe Calderon's well run campaign and image  again raised citizen expectations, but on this occasion voters probed to be cautious and gave Calderon a tight victory over a left leaning opposing candidate, but the electorate split their ballots by not selecting a PAN congressional majority; they in turn divided their votes resulting in an unprecedented three party minority gridlock.

It was expected that initiatives and bills would need be discussed and negotiated among opposing parties.

Upon taking office congressional leaders began negotiating their power arrangement confronting the president's previously unchallenged position. Overly ambitious partisanship gave way to gridlock and to unfortunate public debates; party ideals were forsaken as bartering took hold of the legislative process, citizens were incredulous to witness former adversaries voting on the same side in order to broaden congress's' influence and trim any existing oversight authority over them.

Citizen disappointment developed and increased as the 2009 mid-term elections came; A citizen motivated crusade took national proportions as the "White vote" (Nonpartisan and independent candidates) was encouraged and threatened political party power.

As a result Election Day brought high absenteeism (As much as 70% in some states) and the white (or nullified) votes grew into millions from a traditional 2-3% average to a whopping 7%.

The election results were surprising in other ways; The 2006 results were overturned, Calderon's ruling party (PAN) 2006 first congressional minority status of 206 congressmen shrank significantly to 144 as it was retreated to second place and the surprisingly durable PRI whose 2006 third minority status with 106 legislators unexpectedly took over the PAN's previous position by capturing a near majority with 238 congressional seats. But the electorate's backlash went further as they unseated 58 congressmen from the leftist PRD party and relegated the previously second minority hopeful to third place with only 69 congressmen. A unexpected showing by the Green party (PVEM) jumped from 17 to 22 seats.

Almost immediately after the election PRI and the Greens announced a congressional alliance that gave PRI-PVEM the clear majority with over 250 votes (Considering several minor party congressmen that already offered to join the new coalition).

The first casualty to fall in the election's was PAN party head German Martinez, a Calderon favorite who took all the flak from the administration by declaring himself personally responsible for the election results. Understandably PAN is now in disarray as it prepares to convene an executive committee convention and select its new party leader. With mixed results in different states, there is confusion and many factions are contemplating their bid ; Another casualty was PRD whose very public internal feuds and disorganized campaign alliances did little to reassure voters of their once hopeful prospects.

Sadly the biggest loser by far is Mexico . Despite president Calderon's call for solidarity and responsibility, the new congressional composition offers little hope of reasonable negotiations between the administration and the legislative body; important legislative reform initiatives will likely become political bargaining chips in one of Mexico 's most critical times. With the need for vital political reform, tackling   uncertain economic expectations, unemployment and heavy education, energy and communications infrastructure investment requirements, and a widespread crime wave; it appears that citizens will have to tolerantly wait as two political forces eventually reach an understanding.

Carlos Luken, Is an independent columnist.  He is also the  author of the book “300 weeks- Mexico ’s turbulent transition to democracy” (available from Exlibris publishing Co.orders@xlibris.com,  Amazon  www.amazon.com  and  Barnes and Noble . Mr. Luken can be reached at his blog via e-mail at http://carlosluken.com

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