Guest Column
- By Carlos Luken
Following
And they proved to be correct; alas it came with a vengeance that promises to cast doubts on the party’s position and on President Felipe Calderon’s up to now, firm political hold and untarnished image.
Martinez’s resignation though understandable was also startling; the party and he backed most of the mid-term congressional campaign’s efforts on Calderon’s considerable political capital.; in doing so, local issues were put aside and some grass root organizations and their candidates were shunned in favor of improved political options that Martinez’s strategy considered would reinforce the party itself and consequently thrust PAN to a desired congressional majority that could strongly work with Calderon and support his legislative reforms.
Three key issues sparked the crisis; The first was PAN leadership’s direct nomination of independent congressional candidates; another was the apparent reappearance of Cesar Nava (Once Calderon’s private secretary) as Martinez’s heir apparent and lastly and most important, was the opportunity given to some former Fox administration members now relegated to party token symbols, to voice their bitterness with Calderon’s group and its discourteous treatment.
These factors proved to be a bonding agent that managed to merge an unlikely alignment of very diverse groups. Many bitter grass-root member put the blame for poor local results on what they considered the national party’s mishandling of the campaigns, conversely the local factions that managed to win their districts, felt that distancing themselves from the party’s centralized decisions was an opportunity to validate themselves; yet others felt that the chance to regain power positions at Calderon’s inner circle’s expense was too enticing to pass up.
The rallying cry was that Nava’s apparent “hand picked appointment” by Calderon would return to unforgivable former political practices that had been part of previous PRI administrations.
Reality appears to be less dogmatic and more obvious. Many analysts see this as simply a power struggle between factions. Apparently local groups only want more influence in the party machinery but have little interest in challenging the president. However the self-styled “Fox wing” steered by many snubbed party notables among them, previous party chief Manuel Espino, Calderon’s ex- internal opponent Santiago Creel and supposedly former president Vicente Fox himself; is less refined; allegedly their object is to contest Calderon’s position in selecting his successor for the coming 2012 elections by forcibly factoring themselves into the process. Another significant group is composed by party bona fide regulars who are more ideologically oriented and wish to discourage any presidential meddling in party matters hoping to have an autonomous party.
The party’s national council has already convened and opened contender registrations, fixing the leader’s election for August 8; despite many open gambits by some notables, to date the only registered contender is Cesar Nava.
In doing so all rival groups have declined registering their candidates; and have apparently confronted PAN and Calderon by challenging the election’s validity hoping to expose the process as an attempt by Calderon to manipulate the party and possibly set the stage in the near future to name his successor.
Calderon is no stranger to crises; many remember his dismissal by Fox after demonstrating his willingness to contend as a PAN presidential hopeful; during the party’s internal process, he was sternly opposed by then party leader Espino who was ostensibly backing his main opponent, Santiago Creel (allegedly Vicente Fox and his wife Martha’s personal choice). Subsequently Calderon trounced Creel and was named the party candidate.
From there Calderon went on to win the presidency by the narrowest margin in what turned out to be Mexico’s most contested election, his principal opponent Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador demanded a recount and for several months led huge street protests and demonstrations that virtually paralyzed Mexico City, also threatening to upset and obstruct the presidential inauguration.; again Calderon managed to carefully carry on his inauguration process.
Once president, Calderon swiftly established himself and appointed his inner circle, German Martinez, Juan Mourinio, and Cesar Nava to key positions; he then helped to oust party boss Espino substituting him with German Martinez. Mourinio was later named to the all powerful Secretary of governance, but his life was cut short in a tragic airplane accident. Even then Calderon kep his cool and continued without disruption..
Calderon has since faced a war waged upon
Now Calderon faces what may be his most significant political predicament, the recent election gave the congressional majority to his PRI rivals and with internal PAN strife, he must manage to negotiate the passing of vital legislative reforms, achieve party unity and continue to have high approval ratings in order to reassure that his successor is the PAN candidate.
The question most Mexicans and political experts are asking is: How will Calderon react? If he is consistent, he will deal with it in straightforward and forceful manner. This may alienate party rivals and aggravate internal rifts; Calderon also has the option of yielding to party pressures which will turn him into the unprecedented position of a lame duck president.
- My opinion is that he will remain steadfast and continue with his course of action, aided by his reputation and staunch supporters he may be successful, but the question is: At what price?
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- Carlos Luken, Is an independent columnist. He is also the
author of the book “300 weeks-
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