Guest Column
- By Andrew Kohut
From the very beginning Barack Obama’s nomination of Sonia Sotomayor was a no-win situation for the Republican Party — and that is the way it has played out. Yes, by not going all out to oppose her nomination, the G.O.P. probably did not worsen its woeful standing among women and Latino voters. But the likely sizable Republican vote against Judge Sotomayor, and the very tough criticism of the New York judge from the “unofficial” Republican leaders — conservative commentators — is more than enough to remind these constituencies of why they don’t vote Republican very often these days.
The G.O.P. needs to figure out how to keep its base happy and yet broaden its appeal to women, Latinos and young people.
At the same time, the Republican Party’s lack of overwhelming opposition to Judge Sotomayor may have only further exacerbated another G.O.P. problem; the demoralization of its base. A late July Pew Research Center survey found the general public in favor of Judge Sotomayor’s conformation by a 50 percent to 23 percent margin; however a 44 percent to 35 percent plurality of Republicans opposed her, and among conservative Republicans, opponents outnumbered supporters 52 percent to 26 percent.
The Sotomayor confirmation may only add to the disillusionment that many Republicans share that their party is no longer strongly committed to its traditional positions. In July 2004, as many as 74 percent of conservative Republicans awarded their party good grades for standing up for its principles. But by April 2009, just 23 percent of conservative Republicans gave their party high marks for this.
The vote represents the dilemma the G.O.P. faces coming out of its 2008 and 2006 election defeats: how to keep its base happy, on the one hand, and broaden its appeal to women, Latinos and young people, on the other. Most Republicans themselves say they want their leaders to take the party in a more conservative direction, but this will do little to change the fact that, just as in 2000, 88 percent of the party faithful remain white non-Hispanics, and Republican candidates have lost the female vote in the last five presidential elections.
Andrew Kohut is the president of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. He is the co-author of four books and a frequent commentator on polls for National Public Radio, PBS and other news media outlets.
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