Guest Column
Looking ahead at Calderon’s term
- By Dan Lund
- The Herald Mexico/El Universal
September 11, 2006
Following the Federal Electoral Tribunal´s declaration of Felipe Calderón as president-elect, the nation is faced with many questions about the upcoming term. Dan Lund gives his insight on the Calderón presidency and the challenges he may encounter.
What kind of judicial decision made Calderón the president-elect?
It was a unanimous decision by the seven justices of the Federal Electoral Tribunal, but one that was negotiated and forced over time. For weeks, an open secret circulated that the vote for certifying Calderón was stuck at 4 to 3, or 5 to 2. Forcing the unanimous decision did not resolve the political problem of the overall credibility of the Tribunal, and indirectly of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), because it meant that the decision was not well reasoned or well explained. There was no explanation of the law, principles or reasoning that would enable the readers (and there have been many avid readers among the political class) to understand the difference between this decision and the previous annulments regarding elections in Tabasco and Colima.
The "forced comprise" was apparent with the dictum that the IFE had made mistakes, that negative campaigning was not good, that the CCE of the private sector had violated the law, and that the President had "put at risk" the whole process. Yet, none of these problems individually nor all of the problems collectively was sufficient to set aside the election, because there was no way to "measure the impact." A sign of the decision´s weakness is the fact that both the President and the CCE immediately, without grace or humility: (a) denied they had done anything wrong; and (b) that they had influenced anyone. That is, they accepted the court´s decision, but denied the court´s findings.
What kind of presidency can we anticipate with Calderón and his National Action Party (PAN)?
The PAN is the leading force by a significant margin, but without a clear majority status. In a PAN administration, it can lead but not rule without alliances. The leaders of the PAN benches in the Chamber and the Senate were named by the party leadership, in effect by Manuel Espino. It appears that Calderón had a modest role in selecting the lists. However, as president his weight in the delegations will increase dramatically, and he seems determined to have the kind of close working links with Congress that the Fox administration did not develop.
How can we understand the way in which the PAN would sort out and prioritize problems facing the country? Everyone has different lists. Using the campaign and the current confluence of forces, I would suggest it looks something like the following. The order is important in terms of campaign debts, but do not necessarily anticipate the public agenda:
1) The defense of the Fox legacy and resolution of a new campaign debt by pushing the implementation of the Media Reform law, the protection of Fox family members in the on-going corruption investigations, the protection of the bank-bailout institutions, along with the extensive social poverty programs associated with Oportunidades.
2) Extend the stimuli for foreign investment, and promote this process as the critical motor force for economic growth and job development. The continued over-evaluation of the peso is a major Fox economic legacy - foreign investment friendly and more than a bit hostile to exports, except for the in-bond manufacturers.
3) Focus on public security reform and continue the effort to develop a coherent national and integrated national police force, along with the utilization of military forces in key regions of drug-related violence. The current levels of cartel warfare violence are beyond anything seen in the past.
4) Establish the terms of an energy reform as the key defining element for the new administration (not immediately, but within a year), including using market pressures such as the current dynamic at municipal levels to forgo contracts with Luz y Fuerza and seek private sector energy. Energy reform may be the priority, well before re-taking the serious consideration of fiscal or labor reform.
5) Symbolic priorities will be established in reducing poverty, but this is in reality a cosmetic media-oriented and vote promotion, as it was with Fox. It is in fact subordinated to the priorities on continuity in macro-management of the economy and foreign investment promotion of growth and development. Another symbolic priority is in the immigration reform agreement with the United States, but this is quite beyond the control of a Mexican administration as we have learned over the past six years.
What will be the tone of the presidency of Felipe Calderón? Based on what we have observed in the campaign and post-electoral period, and see in the current polling, it may be a presidency very much like that of López Obrador had he won: i.e. a minority presidency full of controversy, challenges, doubts, efforts to build alliances, determined opposition on several fronts, and foreign allies cheering from the sidelines.
What sort of opposition can be anticipated?
There will be opposition of consequence on at least three levels:
The post-electoral protest has morphed into a challenge of legitimacy and a call for deep institutional reform in Mexico. Betting on the forms and the impact of this process should be done coldly without prejudice, as López Obrador is the premiere electoral strategy operative on the left in Mexico´s history. However, he is not the single leader. He may be authoritative, but it is hard to find the authoritarian figure some pre-mature biographies suggest. There is clearly a collective leadership to the opposition and the divisions of labor do not mean divisions in strategy.
The congressional opposition to the Calderón presidency is likely to be less ham-handed than much of the opposition to Fox, and bit more in the spirit of the agile denial of the rostrum on the day of the Informe. We should remember that able politicians don´t repeat tactics that worked in the immediate past, because there is no surprise. Further, the opposition in Congress is likely to be forged on issues and particular bills, and then recast. It is unlikely to be a rigid opposition. This opposition may well coincide with AMLO´s leadership on some points, but is not determined by him.
Civic and citizen based opposition will emerge over specific questions of abuses and particular oxen being gored. This is a highly politicized society, and growing more so.
What kind of president will Calderón make?
This is a big and important question, and not just because we all think of our leaders in highly personalized terms. The fact is that institutions are often impacted by particular leadership, and even the "rule of law" is a dialectic between institutions and personalities. The answer to the question is that we do not know what kind of president he will make. If he is simply ordinary, he may not survive and will be treated with the contempt reserved for the mediocre. If he rises to the challenges (and we know next to nothing of his actual administrative, executive and political leadership capacities), he may be an historic figure.
Calderón is proud, and seems eager to test his capacity and his courage. The campaign (as is the lot with campaigns) has not prepared him for the presidency, but he is ready.
His limitations are in his own experience, the quality of his own trusted team, and the jealous refusal of the current president to give him space in this period. So, Calderón has been up to now quite discreet and respectful, at least of those around him with whom he has debts.
Actually, his first big problem is not dealing with poverty and the "issues" raised by AMLO, as so many preachy foreign-media editorials are advising. His first big problem is coming to grips with a political.
The Herald Mexico edition/El Universal article at: http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=34596&tabla=articulos
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