Guest Column
Defusing AMLO
- By Kenneth Emmond
- The Herald Mexico/El Universal
September 11, 2006
We all know what Felipe Calderon's first challenge is - the one that hit him in the face even before he was formally declared president-elect last week.
He has to figure out how to deal with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a man who so desperately covets the prize that Calderon won that he refuses to concede defeat, even after the highest court in the land told him he's lost.
Whatever his strategy for Mexico might have been on Election Eve, when he felt certain of victory, his movement has degenerated into a Lopez Obrador ego-fest.
Now, thanks to his intransigence, Calderon is pitching in the top of the 10th inning even though there's no tie.
As Mexico City Mayor, Lopez Obrador proved himself to be full of great ideas to help the poor. Whether or not his ideas would have been fiscally sound we'll never know.
It's frustrating to lose a closely-contested election and some bitterness is to be expected, but Lopez Obrador is the living antonym of the "gracious loser."
Like a three-year-old throwing a tantrum, he's lashing out at the system in which he was defeated - the electoral machinery, the courts, the presidency, even Mexico's institutions in general. When he said, "to hell with Mexico's institutions," he became the King of Vituperation.
Calculating politician that he is, he conducts his histrionics in front of a sympathetic audience - thousands of Mexicans who, far from checking him up on his facts, also feel victimized by the system and have countless stories of injustice of their own.
What further complicates the situation is that Lopez Obrador has never shown himself capable of negotiating. He confronts, he twists terminology, and, like a medieval alchemist trying to turn lead into gold, he tries to transform opinion into fact.
The defining "fact" in Lopez Obrador's complaint is that the election was "fraudulent."
The TRIFE admitted that the process wasn't perfect and it rapped the knuckles of President Vicente Fox for interference. It also noted that Lopez Obrador's campaign wasn't squeaky clean either.
Instead of spearheading a "loyal opposition," a practice with a long and honorable democratic tradition where he could be devastatingly effective, Lopez Obrador vows to set up what he calls a parallel government, in effect a "disloyal opposition."
That's how it would be viewed under Articles 80 and 81 of the Constitution. Article 80 states that there can only be one president. Article 81 says the president must be selected under the terms of the Electoral Law - a condition fulfilled by Calderon but not by Lopez Obrador.
Calderon must try to negotiate with this man.
We don't know yet what kind of president Calderon will be. Newly-elected heads of state often surprise voters by being stronger than expected, like Ernesto Zedillo, or weaker than expected, like Vicente Fox.
We do know that, like Lopez Obrador, Calderon is a canny politician. Otherwise he wouldn't have beaten the odds twice in the past year - once to become candidate of the National Action Party (PAN) and once to rise from underdog to victor in the presidential race.
So far, he has said all the right things. He emphasizes that he wants to work with all parties, that he'll be the president even of those who voted against him. He agrees with Lopez Obrador that the plight of the poor must be a top priority in the new administration.
"If anything demands urgent action and all the power of the Mexican state, it is taking care of millions of families who still live in poverty," he said last week.
Since he's still nearly three months away from his inauguration date, Calderon can offer only words, but they're wise words. Poverty should be his priority with or without Lopez Obrador looking over his shoulder.
His strategy will likely be to negotiate with legislators from the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), perhaps offering cabinet posts to talented party members.
Legislators would then have to choose between their anarchic leader in the streets and consolidating the party's substantial gains in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.
Post-election opinion polls suggest that thousands of voters who cast their ballots for Lopez Obrador are heaving a sigh of relief that he didn't make it.
Still, Calderon's problem remains. The deteriorating situation in Oaxaca is a cautionary tale. Violence broke out, a "parallel government" is being established there, and the state is ungovernable. What began as a dispute between the government and teachers has degenerated into chaos.
Lopez Obrador vowed that he will never allow Calderon to govern, and the lesson of Oaxaca teaches that it would be wise to take that threat seriously. This man knows how to generate chaos.
Lopez Obrador's plans for a National Democratic Convention on Sept. 16 in the Zocalo clash with the annual military parade. The shutdown of Paseo de la Reforma continues.
With tactics bordering on sedition, Lopez Obrador has evolved from being a legitimate presidential candidate into being, if not a "danger to Mexico," then certainly a danger to political stability. That is President-Elect Calderon's first problem.
The Herald Mexico edition/El Universal article at: http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=34522&tabla=articulos
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