Guest Column
Democrat-controlled congress a mixed bag for Mexico
- By Kenneth Emmond
- The Herald Mexico-El Universal
November13, 2006
What are Mexicans to make of the results of last Tuesday´s U.S. mid-term election results?
What´s likely to happen to the outstanding issues between Mexico and the U.S., now that the Democrats have won both the House of Representatives and the Senate?
Like U.S. voters commenting with their ballots on issues like the Iraq war, Hurricane Katrina and the economy, Mexicans have been sorely disappointed with the execution of the policies articulated by U.S. President George W. Bush.
None has been more disappointed than outgoing President Vicente Fox. After warm initial Fox-Bush encounters in 2001, Mexico has been pretty much left out in the cold along with the rest of Latin America since Sept. 11 of that year.
Bush´s neighborly promises were renewed in 2004 when he was wooing the Hispanic-American vote. However, instead of improving relations as promised, Bush focused on the worsening situation in Iraq, Katrina, and other issues. The result: U.S.-Mexican relations continued to deteriorate.
Nasty, unconstructive comments were made by politicians on both sides of the border, especially over the contentious issue of illegal immigration and ongoing problems with Mexican drug gangs supplying the world´s largest narcotics market.
By the time the last session of Congress ended, Mexicans were left watching passage — and signing into law by the president — of a bill to build a 1,000-km wall along what´s supposed to be a friendly border, as well as a hostile immigration stance.
That may have shored up the hard-line anti-immigrant vote, most of which was Republican anyway, but the Republican Party paid a steep price.
Exit polls on Nov. 7 showed that Hispanic-Americans responded by turning out to vote in unexpected numbers. Nearly three-quarters of them voted Democrat, up from 55 percent in 2004. They were likely a deciding factor in some of the close races.
Will a Democrat-controlled Congress be friendlier to Mexico than a Republican one?
Despite high hopes inspired by the Congressional regime change, that remains to be seen. Although former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993, Democrats have since shown themselves to be more protectionist than Republicans.
Democrats tend to worry more about job losses arising from free trade. As well, they will likely make it harder for the administration to curb agricultural subsidies, not a good sign for Mexican farmers. On the other hand, they tend to seek practicable, workable solutions to the flow of illegal immigration.
No one should expect a sea change in the new Congress. Nancy Pelosi, who will be speaker in the House of Representatives, says she will follow tradition by naming committee chairmen by seniority.
That means there will be lots of tired old faces running the show. On the basis of seniority, seven of the 19 chairmen-to-be are more than 70 years old — hardly a harbinger of fresh new ideas.
How that plays out in terms of bi-lateral trade remains a question mark, but Mexico has reason to hope for better things on the complicated issues of immigration and narco-crime.
We may have a hint of how Mexico responds to the new U.S. political landscape from President-elect Felipe Calderón´s two-day visit to Washington last week.
Before the meetings began he spoke of a "new relationship" between the two nations and of "building bridges of progress and not walls that isolate and divide us."
Calderón did not meet with members of the new Congress, but he got a very warm welcome from the administration.
When he visited Bush on Thursday, he was invited into the Oval Office, a privilege normally reserved for acting heads of state. In addition, his scheduled half-hour appointment, following a breakfast with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and three other Cabinet members, stretched to almost an hour.
During their meeting, Calderón and Rice agreed to a review of the NAFTA accord with an eye to alleviating the problems it causes Mexican bean and corn producers.
Calderón, who looks every day much more the diplomat-negotiator than his Lone Ranger predecessor, said he and Rice "agreed to begin meetings to start a dialog between the two governments" after he assumes power on Dec. 1.
The visit provides at least a suggestion of future access to U.S. decision-makers.
One solution to Mexico´s trade challenges would be increased investment. Last Friday Calderón was to meet with Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican governor of California who was handily re-elected last Tuesday, leading a trade delegation to Mexico.
The mid-term elections provide some new opportunities for Mexico´s incoming administration, although they don´t point to an entirely new ball game. There will likely be a lot of fudging as Democrats angle for position for the 2008 presidential elections.
Still, if Calderón proves to be the conciliator he appears to be, if the Bush Administration isn´t distracted by new attention-grabbing crises, and if Bush can cure himself of his propensity to listen too hard to lobby groups, there´s room for optimism that relations between the two nations will improve over the next two years, and that there will be progress on at least some of the problems.
- Kenneth Emmond is a freelance journalist and economist who has lived in Mexico since 1995. Kemmond00@yahoo.com
- Article at: http://www.mexiconews.com.mx/21847.html
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