Guest Column
Immigration Benefits from the New Majority Party
Immigration Benefits
from the New Majority Party
IMMIGRATION DAILY FROM ILW.COM
The number one question on the minds of many in the
immigration law community is "What are the chances of immigration benefits
from the new Congress"? Specifically, whither legalization? whither SKIL?
whither AgJOBS? whither DREAM? Here's our take on immigration benefits bills
over the next several months.
Firstly, the message on immigration from the electorate was nuanced (unlike
the clear repudiation of the Administration's Iraq policy by the
electorate). While Rep. Hayworth and the pro- vigilante Mr. Graf both lost
in Arizona, several anti-immigration initiatives won by big margins there.
Many of the Democrats who won ran to the right of the Republicans they faced
on immigration enforcement. So, the vote for the Democratic Party on
election day was not a straight-forward vote for legalization and
comprehensive immigration reform. What this means is that to expect
knee-jerk support for massive immigration benefits from the incoming
Democratic leadership is unrealistic.
On the other hand, there are two big reasons to expect serious immigration
benefits legislation, and to expect this relatively soon. There is no
question where the heart of the Democratic leadership is on immigration
benefits, and they want to deliver for their causes and constituents when
they are able to. Furthermore, it does not take a genius to realize that
there will be precious little in common between the President and new
Democratic majorities in the coming Congress. Immigration offers one of the
few grounds of genuinely common interest, where it is to their mutual
advantage to work together to get concrete legislation enacted.
Some have suggested that the above factors may set the stage for some
combination of SKIL and/or AgJOBS and/or DREAM to be enacted, but not
comprehensive reform, particularly if significant concessions on benefits
have to be made by incoming Speaker Pelosi, involving perhaps depriving
millions of the undocumented from legalizing. We believe that comprehensive
reform along the lines of the McCain-Kennedy bill, even with significant
concessions, is more likely than narrower bills, since a broader approach
will more easily produce a winning coalition. (This is also the reason why
not much may happen in the coming lame duck session, since a broad bill may
need more time to put together than the lame duck affords.)
The biggest reason for incoming Speaker Pelosi to get an immigration bill
passed, even if significant concessions on guest workers and increased
enforcement and reduced benefits have to be made, is what such legislation
will do the anti-immigration hot- heads in the Republican Party for the 2008
presidential election. It is entirely possible that Rep. Tancredo will take
any kind of benefits legislation as provocation enough to launch a third-
party candidacy for President in 2008. Such a move may well eat away any
where from 1% to 5% of the Republican vote, and this possibly in several key
battleground states. This alone may guarantee a Democratic White House,
which is in the Democratic
Congressional leadership's interests to work for, even if it means stepping
on a few liberal toes in horsetrading on the language of the bill.
We believe that there is probable ground to expect some action in the early
months of the new Congress with some form of McCain- Kennedy being enacted
into law. For the long suffering immigration law community, this is sweet
anticipation indeed.
_______________________________________
We welcome readers to share their opinion and ideas with us by writing to
mailto:editor@ilw.com.
(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed by HispanicVista.com (www.hispanicvista.com) without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)