BUSINESS SECTION

L.A. County jobless rate below 5%

Area beats state figures

By Andrew Blazier

LA Daily NewsStaff Writer 

September 18, 2005

Los Angeles County's jobless rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 4.7 percent in August - the rate's first dip below 5 percent in more than 4 years - as the region's economic engine continued to chug along despite higher energy costs.

Fueled by job gains related to the still-hot construction industry and growing strength in aerospace and tourism, the county economy created 21,000 jobs between July and August - and 145,000 new jobs in the past year - the California Employment Development Department reported Friday.

In its monthly jobs survey, the EDD said the number of unemployed countywide fell by 20,000 in August to just 231,000. The nearly explosive growth pushed unemployment down from a rate of 6.4 percent a year ago.

"This is quite amazing," said Jack Kyser, senior vice president and chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. "It's almost boom time."

The growth was attributed to improvements in several industries during the last year, including aerospace, international trade, television and motion pictures production, and tourism. Since August of last year, the information sector added 10,600 jobs, leisure and hospitality added 9,000 positions and educational and health services added 7,700 jobs.

Among non-service industries, construction was the main gainer, adding 8,500 jobs in the last year.

"There's just a lot pushing us forward," Kyser said.

Statewide, California's jobless rate was unchanged from July but fell to a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent from 6.1 percent in August 2004, the EDD reported. The state economy added 73,000 new jobs during the month - for a total of 452,000 new positions in the last 12 months.

Still, the regional economy's apparent dependence on feverish residential and commercial construction, and discrepancies between the state's household and employer surveys, make it difficult to accurately estimate the health of California's economy, said Christopher Thornberg, senior economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

"The payroll survey's anemic. The household survey says things are great," he said. "Obviously, parts of the economy are doing relatively well. People move for economic activity, and there's clearly economic activity here. We just don't know where it is."

Thornberg also worried about an economy whose health appears to be predicated on the housing boom.

"If I said that didn't make me nervous, I'd be lying to you," he said.

The dramatic decline in unemployment likely won't be enough to prompt a labor shortage, however. Shortages can occur when unemployment is so low that employers have difficulty finding workers, but Kyser said he has not seen such signs yet.

"Remember, the population is still growing. We still have migration in from other states," Kyser said. "If you have good job skills, there's just a lot of opportunity out there."

LA Daily News article at: http://www2.dailynews.com/business/ci_3036136

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