| February
21, 2004
Dear Republicans:
Please Stay Home
By Carl J. Luna/HispanicVista.com
Such might be the sentiment Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger may be feeling when
it comes to next Tuesday's primary
election. The Governor
should have expected many liberal
democrats to oppose his Mega-bond
initiative, if only to get even with him
for his doing in their man Gray
"man-did-he-blow-it" Davis
--and perhaps to force Schwarzenegger's
hand on taxes. But if the
bond fails next Tuesday, you can blame it
most on conservative Republicans who
would rather send the state to fiscal
Armageddon than feed the beast of
government with any more debt.
That's why Arnold turned back into the
"Running Man" over the last
month, frantically crisscrossing the
state and nation to pick up cash to fund
pro-bond TV spots and to convince
moderate voters to come out and support
the Big Bond. Yet if he can't
convince substantial parts of his own
party to swallow their fiscal pride, it
may well be hasta la vista, Arnold
baby. Or at least bye-bye to the aura of
invincibility he's been amassing since
the recall. Maybe he can use a kind
of Republican peer pressure - "Come
on Californian Republicans - try some big
fiscal debt. The big boys in Washington
are doing it? What are you, fiscal
woosies?" He needs Republicans
to either hold their nose and vote yes on
the Mega bond or just stay home -which
leaves the top Republican in the state in
the odd position of wishing Republicans
in general are no-shows next week.
Of course, all of this will help the
Democrats in "non partisan"
races across the state and in passing
prop 56 which will make it easier for the
Democrat-controlled legislature to pass
budgets over Republican minority
opposition.
Meanwhile, the surprisingly strong second
place finish of John Edwards in Wisconsin
may have some interesting implications
for Schwarzenegger's Do-Or-Die Bond
initiative. An unusually large number of
Republicans chose to vote on the Democrat
ticket in Wisconsin's open primary and
these voters broke decisively for
Edwards. Such unusually high
Republican support for a candidate
running on a populist anti-trade,
anti-big business, anti-rich platform
might raise an eyebrow or two. Many
political scientists have objected to
open primaries because of the danger they
posed for Machiavellian intrigue.
Members of one party, it is reasoned, may
chose to participate in the other party's
primary precisely to vote for the weakest
opposition candidate. Republicans,
therefore, may have voted in Wisconsin in
such large numbers for Edwards precisely
because they believed that, if he
actually won the nomination, he would be
an easier candidate to beat. Or, at a
minimum, by voting for Edwards
Republicans could help keep his candidacy
alive and keep the Democrat race going,
forcing front-runner John Kerry to spend
precious campaign funds.
Too Machiavellian you say?
Perhaps. But Gray Davis tried (and
succeeded) in doing pretty much the same
thing in the 2002 Republican
gubernatorial primary, smearing Richard
Riordan with negative ads to help the
weaker Bill Simon win the
nomination. Perhaps Karl Rove has
gotten a few ideas and was trying them
out in Wisconsin.
If, come next Tuesday, it turns out a
large number of California's conservative
Republicans have registered as
independents so they could have a little
fun with the Democratic presidential
primary (especially if such machinations
encourage larger turnout by conservatives
who otherwise might have stayed at home)
it could well skew the results for Prop
57 and Schwarzenegger's bond (and his
political future) may end up as so much
collateral political damage.
Over the last few weeks the Governor has
caught a lot of flack for everything from
trying to open up a smoking room in the
Capitol (and rumors that he also tried to
turn Cruz Bustamante's office into a
humidor are vastly exaggerated) to taking
campaign contributions he might otherwise
have thought twice about (gasp-do
politicians do such things?). If
the Governor can't do some serious mind
changing with the electorate on the Mega
bond those issues will all be
irrelevant. Who's going to be
worrying if the Governor's smoking while
the entire capitol is on fiscal fire?
________________________________________________
Carl J. Luna, Ph.D.,
a HispanicVista.com (www.hispanicvista.com)
contributing columnist, is Professor of
Political Science at San Diego Mesa College.
Contact at cluna@sdccd.net
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